2019 season · final

Cincinnati Bengals, 2019: game by game

The Bengals went 2–14 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–8.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Seahawks	L 20–21	60%	−60
Week 2	vs 49ers	L 17–41	1%	−1
Week 3	@ Bills	L 17–21	30%	−30
Week 4	@ Steelers	L 3–27	23%	−23
Week 5	vs Cardinals	L 23–26	23%	−23
Week 6	@ Ravens	L 17–23	12%	−12
Week 7	vs Jaguars	L 17–27	20%	−20
Week 8	vs Rams	L 10–24	9%	−9
Week 10	vs Ravens	L 13–49	0%	0
Week 11	@ Raiders	L 10–17	7%	−7
Week 12	vs Steelers	L 10–16	5%	−5
Week 13	vs Jets	W 22–6	80%	+20
Week 14	@ Browns	L 19–27	39%	−39
Week 15	vs Patriots	L 13–34	62%	−62
Week 16	@ Dolphins	L 35–38	21%	−21
Week 17	vs Browns	W 33–23	45%	+55

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −60 @ SEA

Wk 2 −1 vs SF

Wk 3 −30 @ BUF

Wk 4 −23 @ PIT

Wk 5 −23 vs ARI

Wk 6 −12 @ BAL

Wk 7 −20 vs JAX

Wk 8 −9 @ LA

Wk 10 0 vs BAL

Wk 11 −7 @ OAK

Wk 12 −5 vs PIT

Wk 13 +20 vs NYJ

Wk 14 −39 @ CLE

Wk 15 −62 vs NE

Wk 16 −21 @ MIA

Wk 17 +55 vs CLE

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Judgment calls	+0.06	+11.9
Injuries	−0.03	−1.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.30	−7.4
Kicks	−0.36	+1.0
Fumble bounces	−0.50	−13.4