2019 season · final
Cincinnati Bengals, 2019: game by game
The Bengals went 2–14 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.4 wins. Luck cost them 2.4: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–8.
Every game
How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Seahawks | L 20–21 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 2 | vs 49ers | L 17–41 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 3 | @ Bills | L 17–21 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 4 | @ Steelers | L 3–27 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 5 | vs Cardinals | L 23–26 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 6 | @ Ravens | L 17–23 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 7 | vs Jaguars | L 17–27 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 8 | @ Rams | L 10–24 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 10 | vs Ravens | L 13–49 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Raiders | L 10–17 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 12 | vs Steelers | L 10–16 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 13 | vs Jets | W 22–6 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 14 | @ Browns | L 19–27 | 37% | −37 |
| Week 15 | vs Patriots | L 13–34 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 16 | @ Dolphins | L 35–38 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 17 | vs Browns | W 33–23 | 49% | +51 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +22.4 | +1.40 |
| Kicks | +1.1 | +0.07 |
| Injuries | −2.3 | −0.15 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −7.8 | −0.49 |
| Fumble bounces | −9.4 | −0.59 |