luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2019 · December 1, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Bengals, Week 13 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Jets 22–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Jets: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 6
Cincinnati Bengals 22

December 1, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2.5

Luck index +20 Bengals about even · −20 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Bengals win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 20 CIN 7
  2. 2 NYJ 17 CIN 13
  3. 3 NYJ 16 CIN 18
  4. 4 NYJ 13 CIN 17
  5. 5 NYJ 6 CIN 13
  6. 6 NYJ 11 CIN 20
  7. 7 NYJ 6 CIN 19
  8. 8 NYJ 5 CIN 19
  9. 9 NYJ 7 CIN 26
  10. 10 NYJ 6 CIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.

31 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.12 +0.04 worse by 0.16
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.12 worse by 0.05
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.03 better by 0.14
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.12 +0.20 better by 0.32

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 20% of them, Bengals 80%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+1.3%
Jets by 9–165.2%
Jets by 1–812.4%
Level after regulation1.3%
Bengals by 1–824.7%
Bengals by 9–1621.7%
Bengals by 17+33.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 16, without the luck Bengals by 11.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 42 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Bullock, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • S. Ficken, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Bullock, 48 yds missed · 67% expected
  • R. Bullock, 47 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 10 for 106 yards, Bengals 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Darryl Roberts), 8 yards +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 6:34 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets, 10 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 39 yards +4% CIN +3.0 pts
Q2 1:46 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 12:15 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals (Auden Tate), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NYJ +3.9 pts
Q3 9:58 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.7 pts
Q3 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 6:36 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q3 6:18 False Start on the Jets, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 5:46 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 3 yards +4% CIN +1.3 pts
Q4 10:34 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +1% CIN +1.2 pts
Q4 8:36 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +1% CIN +1.3 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:22 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q1 5:31 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +4% CIN NYJ: Punt
3 Q1 2:29 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% CIN NYJ: Punt
5 Q2 11:28 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% CIN CIN: Field goal
6 Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 39 yardsJudgment calls +4% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:15 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals (Auden Tate), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 592 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt
8 Q3 5:46 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 3 yardsJudgment calls +4% CIN CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • John Jerry (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trumaine Johnson (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ryan Kalil (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (NYJ T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Winters (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 2% · Bengals 98%

Final margin
Bengals by 16
Luck in points
4.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Jets 20% · Bengals 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2019 games · Jets · Bengals

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