luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Bengals, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Bengals 27–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11.4 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:25 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Cincinnati Bengals 17

October 20, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −4

Luck index +21 Jaguars about even · −21 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 8, Bengals win 2.

  1. 1 JAX 40 CIN 9
  2. 2 JAX 40 CIN 17
  3. 3 JAX 36 CIN 20
  4. 4 JAX 28 CIN 16
  5. 5 JAX 24 CIN 16
  6. 6 JAX 32 CIN 26
  7. 7 JAX 38 CIN 35
  8. 8 JAX 28 CIN 26
  9. 9 JAX 27 CIN 31
  10. 10 JAX 20 CIN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 79% of them, Bengals 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+32.2%
Jaguars by 9–1620.8%
Jaguars by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation2.0%
Bengals by 1–810.8%
Bengals by 9–166.5%
Bengals by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 18.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Lambo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Lambo, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Bullock, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Lambo, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:42 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +14% CIN JAX: Punt
2 Q1 9:28 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +12% JAX CIN: Punt
3 Q2 7:56 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q2 0:38 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q3 14:23 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% CIN CIN: Turnover
6 Q3 1:40 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +9% CIN CIN: Field goal
7 Q4 12:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:25 Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +14% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlos Dunlap (CIN DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Miller (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Carl Lawson (CIN DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Geoff Swaim (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Jaguars by 10
Luck in points
8.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 18.0
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 79% · Bengals 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Jaguars · Bengals

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