luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Bengals, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Bengals 27–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:25 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Cincinnati Bengals 17

October 20, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −4

Luck index +20 Jaguars about even · −20 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 8, Bengals win 2.

  1. 1 JAX 35 CIN 6
  2. 2 JAX 30 CIN 9
  3. 3 JAX 30 CIN 13
  4. 4 JAX 30 CIN 17
  5. 5 JAX 40 CIN 30
  6. 6 JAX 24 CIN 16
  7. 7 JAX 24 CIN 20
  8. 8 JAX 18 CIN 16
  9. 9 JAX 28 CIN 31
  10. 10 JAX 24 CIN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 80% of them, Bengals 20%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+35.1%
Jaguars by 9–1620.4%
Jaguars by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation1.4%
Bengals by 1–812.0%
Bengals by 9–165.5%
Bengals by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Jaguars by 10, without the luck Jaguars by 11.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Lambo, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Lambo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Lambo, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Bullock, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Lambo, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 11 for 130 yards, Bengals 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:52 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Ryquell Armstead), 15 yards +4% CIN +1.4 pts
Q1 7:57 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% CIN +1.2 pts
Q2 12:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yards +5% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 5:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 18 yards +8% CIN +2.0 pts
Q2 1:51 Illegal Shift on the Bengals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% JAX +1.2 pts
Q2 1:42 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 0:38 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 13:36 Chop Block on the Bengals (Joe Mixon), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.1 pts
Q3 5:26 Kick Catch Interference on the Bengals (Brandon Wilson), 15 yards +7% JAX +1.1 pts
Q3 2:38 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 1:40 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 15 yards +9% CIN +1.5 pts
Q4 10:12 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Calais Campbell), 15 yards +4% CIN +1.7 pts
Q4 8:40 Illegal Forward Pass on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 5 yards +2% CIN +0.4 pts
Q4 5:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars, 5 yards +4% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 2:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Sam Hubbard), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +1.0 pts
Q4 1:46 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 15 yards 0% CIN +1.8 pts
Q4 1:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (D.J. Hayden), 12 yards 0% CIN +1.1 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:42 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +14% CIN JAX: Punt
2 Q1 9:28 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +11% JAX CIN: Punt
3 Q2 5:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 18 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +8% CIN CIN: Punt
4 Q2 0:38 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q3 1:40 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 305 snaps before, position avg 1 per 393 +9% CIN CIN: Field goal
6 Q4 12:45 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 11:50 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q4 4:25 Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +14% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlos Dunlap (CIN DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cordy Glenn (CIN T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Dre Kirkpatrick (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • John Miller (CIN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Carl Lawson (CIN DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • James O'Shaughnessy (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Geoff Swaim (JAX TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Jaguars by 10
Luck in points
1.8 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 80% · Bengals 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Jaguars · Bengals

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