luckadjusted

Week 7 2019 · October 20, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Falcons, Week 7 2019: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Falcons 37–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:11 left): G. Zuerlein missed 40-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 37
Atlanta Falcons 10

October 20, 2019 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3

Luck index +20 Rams about even · −20 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 8, Falcons win 2.

  1. 1 LA 34 ATL 7
  2. 2 LA 33 ATL 13
  3. 3 LA 26 ATL 10
  4. 4 LA 33 ATL 20
  5. 5 LA 33 ATL 24
  6. 6 LA 15 ATL 9
  7. 7 LA 14 ATL 10
  8. 8 LA 19 ATL 17
  9. 9 LA 19 ATL 23
  10. 10 LA 13 ATL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 80% of them, Falcons 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+33.4%
Rams by 9–1622.8%
Rams by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Falcons by 1–810.8%
Falcons by 9–165.4%
Falcons by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 27. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 20.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Bryant, 52 yds made · 66% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds missed · 87% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 55 yds made · 63% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Bryant, 50 yds missed · 70% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 20 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:32 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% LA ATL: Field goal
2 Q1 11:28 M. Bryant made 52-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +5% ATL ATL: Punt
3 Q1 8:14 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% LA LA: Missed field goal
4 Q1 6:57 The Rams converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% LA LA: Missed field goal
5 Q1 5:11 G. Zuerlein missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +13% ATL LA: Field goal
6 Q2 11:22 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:24 The Rams converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% LA LA: Field goal
8 Q2 1:15 M. Bryant missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +7% LA ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Desmond Trufant (ATL CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Aqib Talib (LA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • John Johnson (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Clay Matthews (LA LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Rams by 27
Luck in points
6.8 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 20.2
Replay with same day's form
Rams 80% · Falcons 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2019 games · Rams · Falcons

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