luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Broncos at Raiders, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 32–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Broncos: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:31 left): Return touchdown by the Raiders, worth 43 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Denver Broncos 23
Las Vegas Raiders 32

October 2, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −2.5

Luck index +9 Raiders about even · −9 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 DEN 34 LV 28
  2. 2 DEN 17 LV 19
  3. 3 DEN 17 LV 22
  4. 4 DEN 26 LV 34
  5. 5 DEN 24 LV 34
  6. 6 DEN 10 LV 23
  7. 7 DEN 6 LV 22
  8. 8 DEN 10 LV 29
  9. 9 DEN 14 LV 38
  10. 10 DEN 10 LV 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Broncos

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

32 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.07 better by 0.06
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.07 better by 0.03
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.11 worse by 0.07
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.08 worse by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 9% of them, Raiders 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.4%
Broncos by 9–162.1%
Broncos by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation0.7%
Raiders by 1–816.1%
Raiders by 9–1622.8%
Raiders by 17+52.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.8 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 9, without the luck Broncos by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 7 for 50 yards, Raiders 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:25 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q1 0:15 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 12:33 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.4 pts
Q2 10:27 Illegal Shift on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.7 pts
Q2 5:45 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.7 pts
Q3 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LV +2.1 pts
Q4 13:15 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Tyron Johnson), 10 yards +3% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 8:43 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 8:37 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 8:32 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q4 7:16 Illegal Formation on the Raiders (Andrew Billings), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.5 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:50 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:01 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% DEN DEN: Field goal
3 Q2 4:06 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% DEN DEN: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 3:31 The Broncos fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +43% LV DEN: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:02 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% LV LV: Field goal
6 Q3 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LV LV: Punt
7 Q4 14:01 The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +5% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q4 2:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +5% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • John Simpson (LV G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Foster Moreau (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quinn Meinerz (DEN G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 64% · Raiders 36%

Final margin
Raiders by 9
Luck in points
10.8 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 9% · Raiders 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Broncos · Raiders

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