luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Broncos at Raiders, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 32–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Broncos: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:31 left): Return touchdown by the Raiders, worth 43 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Denver Broncos 23
Las Vegas Raiders 32

October 2, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −2.5

Luck index +10 Raiders about even · −10 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 DEN 20 LV 13
  2. 2 DEN 23 LV 25
  3. 3 DEN 19 LV 23
  4. 4 DEN 6 LV 13
  5. 5 DEN 14 LV 24
  6. 6 DEN 10 LV 23
  7. 7 DEN 6 LV 23
  8. 8 DEN 7 LV 27
  9. 9 DEN 16 LV 40
  10. 10 DEN 0 LV 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Broncos

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

30 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.07 better by 0.06
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed +0.05 +0.07 better by 0.03
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.05 +0.11 worse by 0.07
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.08 worse by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 10% of them, Raiders 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.7%
Broncos by 9–162.3%
Broncos by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Raiders by 1–817.8%
Raiders by 9–1621.8%
Raiders by 17+49.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 0.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:50 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:01 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% DEN DEN: Field goal
3 Q2 4:06 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% DEN DEN: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 3:31 The Broncos fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +43% LV DEN: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:02 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% LV LV: Field goal
6 Q3 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% LV LV: Punt
7 Q4 14:01 The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q4 2:53 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • John Simpson (LV G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Foster Moreau (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quinn Meinerz (DEN G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 54% · Raiders 46%

Final margin
Raiders by 9
Luck in points
9.7 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 10% · Raiders 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Broncos · Raiders

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