luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 NFL season · September 29, 2022–October 3

Week 4 2022: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 4 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Chiefs won 41–31 and take 48% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 4 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 24–17 @ Colts 37% 86% Deserved
Jets 24–20 @ Steelers 41% 55% Coin flip
Seahawks 48–45 @ Lions 41% 92% Deserved
Falcons 23–20 vs Browns 47% 52% Coin flip
Cardinals 26–16 @ Panthers 47% 96% Deserved
Chiefs 41–31 @ Buccaneers 47% 48% Coin flip

Week 4 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Chiefs W 41–31 @ Buccaneers 48% +52
2 Packers W 27–24 vs Patriots 52% +48
3 Falcons W 23–20 vs Browns 52% +48
4 Jets W 24–20 @ Steelers 55% +45
5 Bills W 23–20 @ Ravens 65% +35
6 Bengals W 27–15 vs Dolphins 82% +18
7 Giants W 20–12 vs Bears 82% +18
8 Vikings W 28–25 @ Saints 82% +18
9 Cowboys W 25–10 vs Commanders 85% +15
10 Titans W 24–17 @ Colts 86% +14
11 Chargers W 34–24 @ Texans 88% +12
12 49ers W 24–9 vs Rams 89% +11
13 Raiders W 32–23 vs Broncos 91% +9
14 Seahawks W 48–45 @ Lions 92% +8
15 Cardinals W 26–16 @ Panthers 96% +4
16 Eagles W 29–21 vs Jaguars 97% +3
17 Jaguars L 21–29 @ Eagles 3% −3
18 Panthers L 16–26 vs Cardinals 4% −4
19 Lions L 45–48 vs Seahawks 8% −8
20 Broncos L 23–32 @ Raiders 9% −9
21 Rams L 9–24 @ 49ers 11% −11
22 Texans L 24–34 vs Chargers 12% −12
23 Colts L 17–24 vs Titans 14% −14
24 Commanders L 10–25 @ Cowboys 15% −15
25 Saints L 25–28 vs Vikings 18% −18
26 Bears L 12–20 @ Giants 18% −18
27 Dolphins L 15–27 @ Bengals 18% −18
28 Ravens L 20–23 vs Bills 35% −35
29 Steelers L 20–24 vs Jets 45% −45
30 Browns L 20–23 @ Falcons 48% −48
31 Patriots L 24–27 @ Packers 48% −48
32 Buccaneers L 31–41 vs Chiefs 52% −52