luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Cardinals at Panthers, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Panthers 26–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Panthers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:23 left): Return touchdown by the Panthers, worth 22 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
Carolina Panthers 16

October 2, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −1

Luck index +4 Cardinals about even · −4 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 10, Panthers win 0.

  1. 1 ARI 34 CAR 0
  2. 2 ARI 33 CAR 6
  3. 3 ARI 33 CAR 10
  4. 4 ARI 26 CAR 6
  5. 5 ARI 37 CAR 20
  6. 6 ARI 24 CAR 10
  7. 7 ARI 36 CAR 24
  8. 8 ARI 19 CAR 10
  9. 9 ARI 8 CAR 3
  10. 10 ARI 17 CAR 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Panthers

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

40 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.09 worse by 0.08
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.37 +0.15 better by 0.52
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained −0.37 +0.04 worse by 0.41
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.05 better by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 96% of them, Panthers 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+64.4%
Cardinals by 9–1620.8%
Cardinals by 1–810.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Panthers by 1–83.2%
Panthers by 9–160.6%
Panthers by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 10, without the luck Cardinals by 8.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Prater, 39 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 6 for 46 yards, Panthers 6 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Zach Ertz), 10 yards +3% CAR +1.5 pts
Q1 5:07 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +2% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Face Mask on the Panthers (Chuba Hubbard), 15 yards +4% ARI +1.3 pts
Q2 3:37 Encroachment on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 13:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 11 yards +2% CAR +1.0 pts
Q3 12:50 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% CAR +2.3 pts
Q3 9:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 37 yards +10% ARI +2.9 pts
Q3 9:10 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 6:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers (Damien Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +7% ARI +1.7 pts
Q3 3:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% CAR +2.7 pts
Q4 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 4 yards +4% ARI +0.8 pts
Q4 12:43 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (James Conner), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CAR +1.5 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:58 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +10% ARI CAR: Punt
2 Q1 7:31 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +13% CAR ARI: Punt
3 Q2 12:23 The Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +22% CAR ARI: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 9:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1055 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers (Damien Wilson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2608 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +7% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q3 3:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% CAR CAR: Turnover
7 Q4 11:26 M. Prater made a 39-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q4 11:17 The Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +11% ARI CAR: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • A.J. Green (ARI WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Antonio Hamilton (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 85% · Panthers 15%

Final margin
Cardinals by 10
Luck in points
1.7 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 8.3
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 96% · Panthers 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Cardinals · Panthers

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