luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Jaguars at Eagles, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Jaguars 29–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:30 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 30 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Philadelphia Eagles 29

October 2, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +3 Eagles about even · −3 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 0, Eagles win 10.

  1. 1 JAX 7 PHI 10
  2. 2 JAX 20 PHI 27
  3. 3 JAX 14 PHI 24
  4. 4 JAX 19 PHI 32
  5. 5 JAX 20 PHI 35
  6. 6 JAX 8 PHI 26
  7. 7 JAX 10 PHI 30
  8. 8 JAX 7 PHI 30
  9. 9 JAX 3 PHI 31
  10. 10 JAX 7 PHI 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 3% of them, Eagles 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.1%
Jaguars by 9–160.6%
Jaguars by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Eagles by 1–87.8%
Eagles by 9–1617.2%
Eagles by 17+71.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 1.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:15 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedC. Kirk dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 20 catchable balls before this +9% PHI JAX: Punt
2 Q1 11:30 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +30% JAX PHI: Punt
3 Q1 7:07 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:33 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% PHI JAX: Punt
5 Q2 11:35 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2667 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +7% JAX JAX: Punt
6 Q2 9:20 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:10 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% PHI JAX: End of half
8 Q3 0:02 Roughing the Kicker on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1169 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 59% · Eagles 41%

Final margin
Eagles by 8
Luck in points
9.6 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 3% · Eagles 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Jaguars · Eagles

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