luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Jaguars at Eagles, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Jaguars 29–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:30 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars, worth 30 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 21
Philadelphia Eagles 29

October 2, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +3 Eagles about even · −3 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 0, Eagles win 10.

  1. 1 JAX 23 PHI 26
  2. 2 JAX 23 PHI 28
  3. 3 JAX 15 PHI 23
  4. 4 JAX 20 PHI 31
  5. 5 JAX 13 PHI 27
  6. 6 JAX 10 PHI 27
  7. 7 JAX 7 PHI 27
  8. 8 JAX 17 PHI 40
  9. 9 JAX 13 PHI 41
  10. 10 JAX 0 PHI 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 3% of them, Eagles 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.1%
Jaguars by 9–160.9%
Jaguars by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Eagles by 1–86.4%
Eagles by 9–1616.7%
Eagles by 17+73.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 8, without the luck even. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 4 for 38 yards, Eagles 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:11 False Start on the Eagles (Zach Pascal), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 12:45 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Shaquill Griffin), 5 yards +3% PHI +1.1 pts
Q2 11:35 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +3.0 pts
Q2 8:24 Encroachment on the Jaguars (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.5 pts
Q3 6:22 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Josiah Scott), 5 yards +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q3 2:17 Face Mask on the Jaguars, 15 yards +6% PHI +1.8 pts
Q3 0:02 Roughing the Kicker on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 13 yards +6% PHI +2.9 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:15 C. Kirk dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 20 catchable balls before this +7% PHI JAX: Punt
2 Q1 11:30 The Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +30% JAX PHI: Punt
3 Q2 11:35 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2667 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +7% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q2 9:20 The Eagles converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:10 The Jaguars fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PHI JAX: End of half
6 Q3 4:24 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% PHI JAX: Turnover
7 Q3 2:17 Face Mask on the Jaguars, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% PHI PHI: Field goal
8 Q3 0:02 Roughing the Kicker on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1169 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 51% · Eagles 49%

Final margin
Eagles by 8
Luck in points
7.9 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 3% · Eagles 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Jaguars · Eagles

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