luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Patriots at Packers, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Patriots 27–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Packers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 50 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 77% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:04 left): the Packers fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 48 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final (OT)

New England Patriots 24
Green Bay Packers 27

October 2, 2022 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −10

Luck index +48 Packers lucky · −48 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 5, Packers win 5.

  1. 1 NE 34 GB 9
  2. 2 NE 41 GB 26
  3. 3 NE 38 GB 28
  4. 4 NE 37 GB 31
  5. 5 NE 24 GB 21
  6. 6 NE 30 GB 31
  7. 7 NE 32 GB 36
  8. 8 NE 26 GB 34
  9. 9 NE 20 GB 34
  10. 10 NE 9 GB 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 48% of them, Packers 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+12.2%
Patriots by 9–1614.3%
Patriots by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation4.7%
Packers by 1–821.4%
Packers by 9–1614.0%
Packers by 17+13.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.6 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 3, without the luck Patriots by 5.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Crosby, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Crosby, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 7 for 75 yards, Packers 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:16 Face Mask on the Patriots (Mack Wilson), 15 yards +6% GB +1.8 pts
Q1 2:25 False Start on the Patriots, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.7 pts
Q1 1:14 Horse Collar Tackle on the Patriots, 15 yards +1% GB +1.4 pts
Q2 8:59 Illegal Blindside Block on the Patriots, 15 yards +5% GB +1.4 pts
Q3 9:52 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +7% NE +1.5 pts
Q3 9:20 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Raekwon McMillan), 10 yards +4% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 8:32 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 15 yards +5% NE +1.4 pts
Q3 5:27 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q4 3:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 11 yards +8% GB +1.5 pts
Q4 2:02 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NE +0.3 pts
Q4 0:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yards +23% NE +0.9 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:04 The Patriots fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% GB NE: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 0:22 The Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +31% NE GB: End of half
3 Q4 6:17 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:08 R. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +10% NE GB: Punt
5 Q4 0:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +23% NE NE: Punt
6 Q4 0:04 The game turned hereThe Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +48% GB GB: Punt
7 OT 8:33 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% NE GB: Punt
8 OT 7:00 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +17% GB NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mac Jones (NE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 4.3 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jakobi Meyers (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Lawrence Guy (NE DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 64% · Packers 36%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
8.6 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 5.6
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 48% · Packers 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Patriots · Packers

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