luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Patriots at Packers, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Patriots 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:22 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 54 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final (OT)

New England Patriots 24
Green Bay Packers 27

October 2, 2022 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −10

Luck index +38 Packers lucky · −38 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 4, Packers win 6.

  1. 1 NE 27 GB 6
  2. 2 NE 44 GB 31
  3. 3 NE 37 GB 30
  4. 4 NE 23 GB 20
  5. 5 NE 24 GB 26
  6. 6 NE 28 GB 34
  7. 7 NE 31 GB 40
  8. 8 NE 20 GB 34
  9. 9 NE 17 GB 37
  10. 10 NE 13 GB 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 38% of them, Packers 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+7.5%
Patriots by 9–1610.8%
Patriots by 1–818.4%
Level after regulation1.6%
Packers by 1–824.8%
Packers by 9–1617.7%
Packers by 17+19.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 8.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Crosby, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Crosby, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:22 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +54% NE GB: End of half
2 Q3 11:16 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q4 6:17 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +16% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:08 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedR. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +13% NE GB: Punt
5 Q4 0:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +23% NE NE: Punt
6 Q4 0:04 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +52% GB GB: Punt
7 QOT 8:33 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% NE GB: Punt
8 QOT 7:00 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +17% GB NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mac Jones (NE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 4.3 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jakobi Meyers (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Lawrence Guy (NE DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 76% · Packers 24%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
11.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 38% · Packers 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Patriots · Packers

More from Week 4 2022