luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · September 29, 2022

Dolphins at Bengals, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Dolphins 27–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:27 left): J. Sanders had a 52-yard field goal blocked, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Miami Dolphins 15
Cincinnati Bengals 27

September 29, 2022 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −4

Luck index +18 Bengals about even · −18 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Bengals win 8.

  1. 1 MIA 24 CIN 10
  2. 2 MIA 23 CIN 19
  3. 3 MIA 31 CIN 33
  4. 4 MIA 30 CIN 34
  5. 5 MIA 20 CIN 27
  6. 6 MIA 16 CIN 27
  7. 7 MIA 9 CIN 24
  8. 8 MIA 36 CIN 54
  9. 9 MIA 16 CIN 39
  10. 10 MIA 14 CIN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 18% of them, Bengals 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+1.7%
Dolphins by 9–165.0%
Dolphins by 1–811.0%
Level after regulation1.3%
Bengals by 1–825.0%
Bengals by 9–1621.1%
Bengals by 17+34.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.0 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 12, without the luck Bengals by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Sanders, 52 yds blocked · 66% expected
  • J. Sanders, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. McPherson, 19 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. McPherson, 57 yds made · 65% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 6 for 41 yards, Bengals 6 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:54 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins (Keion Crossen), 15 yards +5% CIN +1.6 pts
Q1 11:28 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.3 pts
Q1 3:36 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 6 yards, wiping out the play +6% CIN +2.1 pts
Q2 10:39 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 7:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 24 yards +12% MIA +2.1 pts
Q2 6:38 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Joseph Ossai), 15 yards +5% MIA +0.8 pts
Q2 2:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Sam Hubbard), 15 yards +5% MIA +1.8 pts
Q2 1:05 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.8 pts
Q3 14:14 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 2:40 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MIA +2.6 pts
Q4 6:20 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.8 pts
Q4 4:51 Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 5 yards +4% MIA +0.7 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:13 C. Edmonds dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 8 catchable balls before this +6% CIN MIA: Field goal
2 Q2 7:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2899 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q2 5:15 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% MIA MIA: Missed field goal
4 Q2 4:27 J. Sanders had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 66% expected for him, 34 of 49 from 45+ before +16% CIN MIA: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:58 The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:40 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MIA MIA: Punt
7 Q3 0:56 The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 Q4 3:17 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +9% CIN MIA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 19% · Bengals 81%

Final margin
Bengals by 12
Luck in points
8.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 18% · Bengals 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Dolphins · Bengals

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