luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · September 29, 2022

Dolphins at Bengals, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Dolphins 27–15 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.8 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:58 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 11, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Miami Dolphins 15
Cincinnati Bengals 27

September 29, 2022 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −4

Luck index +32 Bengals lucky · −32 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Bengals win 7.

  1. 1 MIA 32 CIN 14
  2. 2 MIA 24 CIN 16
  3. 3 MIA 20 CIN 17
  4. 4 MIA 22 CIN 24
  5. 5 MIA 20 CIN 24
  6. 6 MIA 10 CIN 17
  7. 7 MIA 13 CIN 24
  8. 8 MIA 27 CIN 41
  9. 9 MIA 3 CIN 23
  10. 10 MIA 13 CIN 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 32% of them, Bengals 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+4.5%
Dolphins by 9–167.8%
Dolphins by 1–816.1%
Level after regulation4.3%
Bengals by 1–824.1%
Bengals by 9–1619.6%
Bengals by 17+23.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Sanders, 52 yds blocked · 66% expected
  • J. Sanders, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • E. McPherson, 19 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. McPherson, 57 yds made · 63% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:13 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedC. Edmonds dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 8 catchable balls before this +8% CIN MIA: Field goal
2 Q2 7:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 2899 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q2 4:27 J. Sanders had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 66% expected for him, 34 of 49 from 45+ before +17% CIN MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:58 The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +21% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 2:43 J. Sanders made 20-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +10% CIN MIA: Punt
6 Q3 2:40 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MIA MIA: Punt
7 Q3 0:56 The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 Q4 3:17 The Dolphins threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% CIN MIA: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 16% · Bengals 84%

Final margin
Bengals by 12
Luck in points
5.6 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 32% · Bengals 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Dolphins · Bengals

More from Week 4 2022