luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Vikings vs Saints, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Saints 28–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: drops alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): W. Lutz missed a 61-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
New Orleans Saints 25

October 2, 2022 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4

Luck index +18 Vikings about even · −18 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 8, Saints win 2.

  1. 1 MIN 33 NO 6
  2. 2 MIN 38 NO 17
  3. 3 MIN 27 NO 10
  4. 4 MIN 30 NO 16
  5. 5 MIN 17 NO 6
  6. 6 MIN 19 NO 10
  7. 7 MIN 25 NO 19
  8. 8 MIN 25 NO 23
  9. 9 MIN 10 NO 14
  10. 10 MIN 14 NO 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 82% of them, Saints 18%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+33.7%
Vikings by 9–1621.0%
Vikings by 1–825.5%
Level after regulation2.5%
Saints by 1–810.2%
Saints by 9–165.2%
Saints by 17+1.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.2 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 3, without the luck Saints by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Joseph, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Joseph, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • W. Lutz, 60 yds made · 56% expected
  • G. Joseph, 47 yds made · 74% expected
  • W. Lutz, 61 yds missed · 50% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 5 for 35 yards, Saints 10 for 102 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:17 Defensive Offside on the Saints, 6 yards · pre-snap +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 10:57 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.3 pts
Q1 8:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% NO +3.8 pts
Q1 7:07 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 6:55 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIN +1.5 pts
Q2 0:16 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.4 pts
Q3 11:08 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 5:39 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.8 pts
Q3 3:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints, 15 yards +4% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 0:46 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Kirk Cousins), 10 yards +3% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 0:41 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 8:39 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Bradley Roby), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.7 pts
Q4 5:36 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Tyrann Mathieu), 5 yards +10% MIN +1.2 pts
Q4 4:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 41 yards +26% MIN +3.6 pts
Q4 4:15 Offensive Holding on the Saints (J.P. Holtz), 10 yards +7% MIN +1.3 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2089 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +14% NO NO: Punt
2 Q2 9:03 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:51 The Saints converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q4 5:36 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints (Tyrann Mathieu), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3798 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3082 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +26% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:56 W. Lutz made a 60-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 18 of 26 from 45+ before +8% NO NO: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:29 G. Joseph made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 11 of 17 from 45+ before +19% MIN –
8 Q4 0:02 W. Lutz missed a 61-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 19 of 27 from 45+ before +26% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out, replaced by a.dalton · 1.6 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Vannett (NO TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 38% · Saints 62%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
8.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 5.2
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 82% · Saints 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Vikings · Saints

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