luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Vikings vs Saints, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Saints 28–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: drops alone were worth 4.3 points to the Saints.

An off day for the Saints: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Vikings were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): W. Lutz missed 61-yard field goal, worth 27 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
New Orleans Saints 25

October 2, 2022 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4

Luck index +13 Vikings about even · −13 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Saints win 1.

  1. 1 MIN 41 NO 10
  2. 2 MIN 31 NO 7
  3. 3 MIN 20 NO 0
  4. 4 MIN 27 NO 10
  5. 5 MIN 30 NO 17
  6. 6 MIN 34 NO 23
  7. 7 MIN 8 NO 0
  8. 8 MIN 28 NO 23
  9. 9 MIN 22 NO 20
  10. 10 MIN 16 NO 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Saints

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

31 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained +0.04 +0.11 worse by 0.07
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.10 worse by 0.16
Saints offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.04 better by 0.23
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.04 +0.04 better by 0.00

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 87% of them, Saints 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+45.8%
Vikings by 9–1623.0%
Vikings by 1–818.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Saints by 1–87.3%
Saints by 9–162.9%
Saints by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 6.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Joseph, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Joseph, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • W. Lutz, 60 yds made · 52% expected
  • G. Joseph, 47 yds made · 75% expected
  • W. Lutz, 61 yds missed · 52% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2089 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +14% NO NO: Punt
2 Q1 8:19 The Vikings converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:03 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:00 The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +11% MIN MIN: Field goal
5 Q4 6:20 J. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 30 catchable balls before this +11% NO MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3082 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +26% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:29 G. Joseph made 47-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 11 of 17 from 45+ before +19% MIN –
8 Q4 0:02 W. Lutz missed 61-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 19 of 27 from 45+ before +27% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out, replaced by a.dalton · 1.6 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Vannett (NO TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 37% · Saints 63%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
9.8 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 87% · Saints 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Vikings · Saints

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