luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Chiefs at Buccaneers, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers 41–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.2 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:28 left): the Chiefs converted 3rd & 10, worth 9 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 41
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

October 2, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −1

Luck index +56 Chiefs lucky · −56 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 KC 45 TB 24
  2. 2 KC 36 TB 23
  3. 3 KC 34 TB 27
  4. 4 KC 31 TB 29
  5. 5 KC 33 TB 35
  6. 6 KC 37 TB 42
  7. 7 KC 20 TB 29
  8. 8 KC 23 TB 35
  9. 9 KC 31 TB 48
  10. 10 KC 27 TB 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 44% of them, Buccaneers 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+8.7%
Chiefs by 9–1612.5%
Chiefs by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation3.4%
Buccaneers by 1–824.3%
Buccaneers by 9–1616.4%
Buccaneers by 17+15.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 7.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Wright, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Wright, 32 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% KC TB: Field goal
2 Q1 11:03 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% KC TB: Field goal
3 Q1 8:16 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +4% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:28 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q1 5:29 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +4% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:13 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedC. Edwards-Helaire dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 13 catchable balls before this +8% TB KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 5:09 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% KC TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:28 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (TB WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Harrison Butker (KC K), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 83% · Buccaneers 17%

Final margin
Chiefs by 10
Luck in points
2.6 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 44% · Buccaneers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Chiefs · Buccaneers

More from Week 4 2022