luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Browns at Falcons, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Browns 23–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:03 left): the Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 37 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
Atlanta Falcons 23

October 2, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +48 Falcons lucky · −48 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Falcons win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 33 ATL 12
  2. 2 CLE 41 ATL 28
  3. 3 CLE 26 ATL 16
  4. 4 CLE 15 ATL 10
  5. 5 CLE 21 ATL 19
  6. 6 CLE 24 ATL 27
  7. 7 CLE 14 ATL 20
  8. 8 CLE 17 ATL 27
  9. 9 CLE 20 ATL 34
  10. 10 CLE 13 ATL 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 48% of them, Falcons 52%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+10.0%
Browns by 9–1615.1%
Browns by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation5.6%
Falcons by 1–820.5%
Falcons by 9–1615.8%
Falcons by 17+12.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 3, without the luck Browns by 4.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. York, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 45 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 7 for 51 yards, Falcons 1 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:22 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.5 pts
Q1 3:36 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Richard LeCounte), 8 yards +2% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 0:28 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +8% ATL +2.0 pts
Q3 12:30 False Start on the Browns (Ronnie Harrison), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 11:55 Face Mask on the Falcons, 15 yards +2% CLE +1.4 pts
Q4 8:40 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Tommy Togiai), 3 yards +3% ATL +0.7 pts
Q4 3:03 Face Mask on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 15 yards +8% ATL +1.8 pts
Q4 1:32 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yards +8% ATL +0.9 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:30 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% ATL CLE: Turnover
2 Q2 0:28 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% ATL ATL: End of half
3 Q3 3:12 C. York made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:03 Face Mask on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2773 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q4 2:39 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% CLE ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 2:33 Y. Koo made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him, 29 of 33 from 45+ before +11% ATL ATL: End of game
7 Q4 1:32 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yardsJudgment calls +8% ATL ATL: End of game
8 Q4 1:03 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +37% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deion Jones (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Mayfield (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Garrett (CLE DE), out · 1.3 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taven Bryan (CLE DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 76% · Falcons 24%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
7.9 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Browns 48% · Falcons 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Browns · Falcons

More from Week 4 2022