luckadjusted

Week 4 2022 · October 2, 2022

Browns at Falcons, Week 4 2022: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Browns 23–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.8 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:03 left): the Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 53 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
Atlanta Falcons 23

October 2, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +47 Falcons lucky · −47 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Falcons win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 37 ATL 14
  2. 2 CLE 26 ATL 12
  3. 3 CLE 31 ATL 21
  4. 4 CLE 26 ATL 20
  5. 5 CLE 16 ATL 14
  6. 6 CLE 20 ATL 23
  7. 7 CLE 19 ATL 24
  8. 8 CLE 10 ATL 20
  9. 9 CLE 10 ATL 24
  10. 10 CLE 5 ATL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 47% of them, Falcons 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+10.4%
Browns by 9–1614.2%
Browns by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation4.8%
Falcons by 1–820.8%
Falcons by 9–1616.6%
Falcons by 17+12.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 6.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. York, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 45 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:30 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +14% ATL CLE: Turnover
2 Q2 1:25 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +14% CLE CLE: Field goal
3 Q3 3:12 C. York made 45-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:48 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% ATL CLE: Punt
5 Q4 3:03 Face Mask on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2773 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 2:33 Y. Koo made 45-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 29 of 33 from 45+ before +11% ATL ATL: End of game
7 Q4 1:32 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yardsJudgment calls +8% ATL ATL: End of game
8 Q4 1:03 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +53% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deion Jones (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Mayfield (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Garrett (CLE DE), out · 1.3 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taven Bryan (CLE DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 80% · Falcons 20%

Final margin
Falcons by 3
Luck in points
9.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 47% · Falcons 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2022 games · Browns · Falcons

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