Week 14 2022 · December 8, 2022
Raiders at Rams, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Raiders 17–16, but the replays lean toward the Raiders: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Rams.
Before kickoff the Raiders were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:10 left): the Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 90 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 16 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Rams very lucky · −69 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 7, Rams win 3.
- 1 LV 31 LA 7
- 2 LV 30 LA 13
- 3 LV 34 LA 20
- 4 LV 24 LA 13
- 5 LV 27 LA 20
- 6 LV 7 LA 3
- 7 LV 19 LA 17
- 8 LV 6 LA 9
- 9 LV 20 LA 27
- 10 LV 10 LA 23
Your call
Did the Rams earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 69% of them, Rams 31%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 16.0% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 29.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 18.5% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 9.4% |
| Rams by 17+ | 2.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 74% expected
- M. Gay, 55 yds made · 69% expected
- D. Carlson, 31 yds made · 97% expected
- M. Gay, 61 yds missed · 58% expected
- D. Carlson, 36 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Raiders 7 for 94 yards, Rams 7 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:09 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 5 yards | +2% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:13 | Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.5 pts |
| Q1 7:03 | Defensive Holding on the Rams (Bobby Wagner), 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% LV +0.1 pts |
| Q2 13:40 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 5 yards | +2% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:10 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Jakob Johnson), 10 yards | +3% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:45 | Offensive Holding on the Rams (Robert Rochell), 10 yards | +3% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:16 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Tre'von Moehrig), 41 yards | +7% LA +2.4 pts |
| Q3 3:44 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +3% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 15 yards | +3% LV +1.4 pts |
| Q4 11:02 | Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 6 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +1.9 pts |
| Q4 10:53 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% LV +2.7 pts |
| Q4 8:41 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 12 yards, wiping out the play | +14% LA +4.2 pts |
| Q4 1:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Jerry Tillery), 15 yards | +16% LA +1.1 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:42 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:46 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 0:11 | M. Gay made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 25 of 34 from 45+ before | +7% LA | LA: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 5:37 | The Rams converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +10% LA | LA: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 5:16 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Tre'von Moehrig), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2014 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 | +7% LA | LA: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 704 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +14% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Jerry Tillery), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 2523 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 | +16% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:10 | The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws | +90% LA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out (IR), replaced by b.mayfield · 3.0 pts
- Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Aaron Donald (LA DT), out · 0.9 pts
- Allen Robinson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Alaric Jackson (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Chandler Brewer (LA T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- A'Shawn Robinson (LA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Bobby Evans (LA G), out · 0.1 pts
- Terrell Lewis (LA LB), out · 0.1 pts
- Rock Ya-Sin (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Jayon Brown (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Anthony Averett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Andrew Billings (LV DT), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 32% · Rams 68%
- Final margin
- Rams by 1
- Luck in points
- 6.0 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 7.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 69% · Rams 31% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · 
Raiders · 
Rams
More from Week 14 2022
- Ravens at Steelers BAL 16–14 · replay 26% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 23–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Texans at Cowboys DAL 27–23 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 36–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 34–23 · replay 77% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 20–12 · replay 98% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 48–22 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 34–28 · replay 99% for the winner
- Panthers at Seahawks CAR 30–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Buccaneers at 49ers SF 35–7 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Chargers LAC 23–17 · replay 87% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals NE 27–13 · replay 81% for the winner