luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Vikings at Lions, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Vikings 34–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.0 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:06 left): the Vikings fumbled and the Lions recovered, worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 23
Detroit Lions 34

December 11, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +13 Lions about even · −13 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 1, Lions win 9.

  1. 1 MIN 28 DET 21
  2. 2 MIN 21 DET 23
  3. 3 MIN 30 DET 36
  4. 4 MIN 20 DET 28
  5. 5 MIN 17 DET 29
  6. 6 MIN 24 DET 39
  7. 7 MIN 16 DET 34
  8. 8 MIN 10 DET 31
  9. 9 MIN 7 DET 33
  10. 10 MIN 0 DET 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 13% of them, Lions 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+1.1%
Vikings by 9–162.3%
Vikings by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation2.3%
Lions by 1–817.1%
Lions by 9–1622.7%
Lions by 17+46.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 16.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 47 yds missed · 72% expected
  • G. Joseph, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Badgley, 49 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:48 The Lions converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% DET DET: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 13:02 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedT. Hockenson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 68 catchable balls before this +6% DET MIN: Punt
3 Q2 5:17 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% MIN MIN: Turnover
4 Q2 1:12 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% MIN MIN: Turnover
5 Q2 1:06 The Vikings fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% DET MIN: End of half
6 Q2 0:15 M. Badgley missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 12 of 25 from 45+ before +8% MIN DET: Touchdown
7 Q3 11:04 The Lions converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedTaunting on the Lions, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 2:24 The Vikings converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Brown (DET C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tom Kennedy (DET WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Harris (DET SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 1% · Lions 99%

Final margin
Lions by 11
Luck in points
5.0 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 16.0
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 13% · Lions 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Vikings · Lions

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