luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Vikings at Lions, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Vikings 34–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:06 left): the Vikings fumbled and the Lions recovered, worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 23
Detroit Lions 34

December 11, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +23 Lions about even · −23 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Lions win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 27 DET 14
  2. 2 MIN 19 DET 16
  3. 3 MIN 23 DET 25
  4. 4 MIN 30 DET 35
  5. 5 MIN 12 DET 20
  6. 6 MIN 16 DET 26
  7. 7 MIN 10 DET 23
  8. 8 MIN 14 DET 30
  9. 9 MIN 6 DET 26
  10. 10 MIN 14 DET 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 23% of them, Lions 77%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+3.3%
Vikings by 9–166.7%
Vikings by 1–811.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Lions by 1–826.0%
Lions by 9–1621.4%
Lions by 17+28.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 11, without the luck Lions by 9.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 47 yds missed · 72% expected
  • G. Joseph, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Badgley, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Badgley, 49 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 3 for 25 yards, Lions 7 for 51 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:32 Defensive Offside on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.8 pts
Q1 8:15 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yards +5% MIN +1.9 pts
Q1 4:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Jeff Okudah), 4 yards +1% MIN +0.8 pts
Q1 4:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jeff Okudah), 2 yards +2% MIN +0.3 pts
Q1 3:45 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% MIN +1.7 pts
Q1 2:44 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings, 15 yards +5% DET +1.8 pts
Q2 13:27 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.6 pts
Q3 13:06 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q3 11:04 Taunting on the Lions, 15 yards +3% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 6:54 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% MIN +1.6 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:25 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% DET MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:15 Defensive Holding on the Lions, 5 yardsJudgment calls +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:48 The Lions converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% DET DET: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 5:17 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% MIN MIN: Turnover
5 Q2 1:12 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% MIN MIN: Turnover
6 Q2 1:06 The Vikings fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% DET MIN: End of half
7 Q2 0:15 M. Badgley missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 12 of 25 from 45+ before +8% MIN DET: Touchdown
8 Q3 2:24 The Vikings converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Brown (DET C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tom Kennedy (DET WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Will Harris (DET SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.7 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 5% · Lions 95%

Final margin
Lions by 11
Luck in points
1.1 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 9.9
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 23% · Lions 77% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Vikings · Lions

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