luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Jaguars at Titans, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Titans 36–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Titans: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:53 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 36
Tennessee Titans 22

December 11, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +7 Jaguars about even · −7 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 JAX 48 TEN 16
  2. 2 JAX 44 TEN 19
  3. 3 JAX 34 TEN 13
  4. 4 JAX 40 TEN 23
  5. 5 JAX 36 TEN 21
  6. 6 JAX 25 TEN 13
  7. 7 JAX 21 TEN 12
  8. 8 JAX 32 TEN 26
  9. 9 JAX 26 TEN 24
  10. 10 JAX 20 TEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Titans

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

40 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.35 +0.09 better by 0.27
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.22 +0.16 worse by 0.06
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.22 +0.10 better by 0.12
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.35 +0.09 worse by 0.27

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 93% of them, Titans 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+59.9%
Jaguars by 9–1622.0%
Jaguars by 1–810.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Titans by 1–84.6%
Titans by 9–161.5%
Titans by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 8.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:53 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% JAX TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:07 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:26 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q2 3:22 Z. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 73 catchable balls before this +6% TEN JAX: Field goal
5 Q2 3:17 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedZ. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 74 catchable balls before this +11% TEN JAX: Field goal
6 Q2 2:00 The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% JAX TEN: End of half
7 Q2 0:27 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +8% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:07 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% TEN TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Denico Autry (TEN DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Andre Cisco (JAX SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 90% · Titans 10%

Final margin
Jaguars by 14
Luck in points
5.7 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 8.3
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 93% · Titans 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Jaguars · Titans

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