luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Chiefs at Broncos, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Broncos 34–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.5 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:00 left): the Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 23 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 34
Denver Broncos 28

December 11, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Chiefs −8.5

Luck index +1 Chiefs about even · −1 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 10, Broncos win 0.

  1. 1 KC 45 DEN 0
  2. 2 KC 51 DEN 14
  3. 3 KC 42 DEN 9
  4. 4 KC 46 DEN 17
  5. 5 KC 35 DEN 9
  6. 6 KC 47 DEN 24
  7. 7 KC 33 DEN 13
  8. 8 KC 40 DEN 24
  9. 9 KC 38 DEN 27
  10. 10 KC 26 DEN 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 99% of them, Broncos 1%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+91.6%
Chiefs by 9–165.9%
Chiefs by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.2%
Broncos by 1–80.3%
Broncos by 9–160.1%
Broncos by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 8.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • H. Butker, 45 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:12 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q2 14:28 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +10% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:43 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the ChiefsSpecial teams +16% KC DEN: Punt
4 Q4 14:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 40 yardsJudgment calls +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:54 The Broncos converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:13 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DEN DEN: Punt
7 Q4 6:00 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% DEN KC: End of game
8 Q4 4:34 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 3099 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +13% KC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Billy Turner (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dalton Risner (DEN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jonas Griffith (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Fraboni (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 92% · Broncos 8%

Final margin
Chiefs by 6
Luck in points
2.4 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 8.4
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 99% · Broncos 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Chiefs · Broncos

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