luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Chiefs at Broncos, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Broncos 34–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:54 left): the Broncos converted 4th & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 34
Denver Broncos 28

December 11, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Chiefs −8.5

Luck index +1 Chiefs about even · −1 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 10, Broncos win 0.

  1. 1 KC 49 DEN 3
  2. 2 KC 44 DEN 7
  3. 3 KC 61 DEN 30
  4. 4 KC 55 DEN 27
  5. 5 KC 47 DEN 22
  6. 6 KC 41 DEN 20
  7. 7 KC 41 DEN 23
  8. 8 KC 44 DEN 31
  9. 9 KC 27 DEN 17
  10. 10 KC 35 DEN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 99% of them, Broncos 1%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+89.5%
Chiefs by 9–167.8%
Chiefs by 1–82.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Broncos by 1–80.4%
Broncos by 9–160.1%
Broncos by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Chiefs by 6, without the luck Chiefs by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • H. Butker, 45 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 4 for 70 yards, Broncos 6 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:44 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.7 pts
Q3 14:57 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.9 pts
Q3 5:15 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +1% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 1:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 3 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.5 pts
Q4 14:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 40 yards +9% DEN +5.2 pts
Q4 14:10 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% KC +2.0 pts
Q4 13:06 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% KC +0.8 pts
Q4 11:41 False Start on the Broncos (Eric Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.8 pts
Q4 4:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Frank Clark), 15 yards +7% DEN +1.1 pts
Q4 4:21 Defensive Offside on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.5 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:12 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q1 7:29 The Broncos converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% DEN DEN: Punt
3 Q2 4:43 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the ChiefsSpecial teams +9% KC DEN: Punt
4 Q4 14:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 40 yardsJudgment calls +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
5 Q4 10:54 The Broncos converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:13 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DEN DEN: Punt
7 Q4 6:00 The Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +7% DEN KC: End of game
8 Q4 3:19 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% KC KC: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Billy Turner (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dalton Risner (DEN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jonas Griffith (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Fraboni (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 96% · Broncos 4%

Final margin
Chiefs by 6
Luck in points
2.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 99% · Broncos 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Chiefs · Broncos

More from Week 14 2022