luckadjusted

Week 17 2022 · January 1, 2023

49ers at Raiders, Week 17 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Raiders 37–34, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the 49ers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 1.8 points to the 49ers.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): R. Gould missed 41-yard field goal, worth 40 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final (OT)

San Francisco 49ers 37
Las Vegas Raiders 34

January 1, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −10

Luck index +48 49ers lucky · −48 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 5, Raiders win 5.

  1. 1 SF 40 LV 16
  2. 2 SF 38 LV 23
  3. 3 SF 40 LV 30
  4. 4 SF 40 LV 34
  5. 5 SF 44 LV 41
  6. 6 SF 40 LV 42
  7. 7 SF 21 LV 27
  8. 8 SF 27 LV 37
  9. 9 SF 27 LV 42
  10. 10 SF 20 LV 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 52% of them, Raiders 48%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+13.9%
49ers by 9–1613.6%
49ers by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation4.9%
Raiders by 1–821.2%
Raiders by 9–1613.5%
Raiders by 17+12.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 12.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Gould, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • R. Gould, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 57 yds made · 67% expected
  • R. Gould, 41 yds missed · 87% expected
  • R. Gould, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:33 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +13% SF LV: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:34 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +13% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q3 3:23 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the 49ers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% LV LV: Turnover
4 Q4 14:53 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% SF LV: Punt
5 Q4 6:48 R. Gould made 24-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +12% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:13 D. Carlson made 57-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 33 of 41 from 45+ before +14% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:02 R. Gould missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +40% LV SF: Field goal
8 QOT 7:53 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsLow Block on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 4 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2657 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +28% SF LV: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derek Carr (LV QB), out, replaced by j.stidham · 5.4 pts
  • Chandler Jones (LV DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out, replaced by b.purdy · 4.8 pts
  • Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 98% · Raiders 2%

Final margin
49ers by 3
Luck in points
9.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 12.4
Replay with same day's form
49ers 52% · Raiders 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2022 games · 49ers · Raiders

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