luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Raiders at Saints, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Raiders 24–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 10 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.1 points to the Raiders.

An off day for the Raiders: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:23 left): the Raiders were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 0
New Orleans Saints 24

October 30, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Raiders −1

Luck index +4 Saints about even · −4 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 0, Saints win 10.

  1. 1 LV 14 NO 17
  2. 2 LV 16 NO 21
  3. 3 LV 13 NO 21
  4. 4 LV 21 NO 31
  5. 5 LV 7 NO 21
  6. 6 LV 0 NO 16
  7. 7 LV 0 NO 18
  8. 8 LV 0 NO 22
  9. 9 LV 7 NO 34
  10. 10 LV 0 NO 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Raiders

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Saints they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

33 points apart for the Raiders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained −0.49 +0.12 worse by 0.61
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.24 +0.10 worse by 0.14
Saints offenseEPA per play gained +0.24 +0.08 better by 0.16
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed −0.49 +0.06 better by 0.55

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 3% of them, Saints 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.1%
Raiders by 9–160.6%
Raiders by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.9%
Saints by 1–814.0%
Saints by 9–1622.8%
Saints by 17+58.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 28.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • W. Lutz, 38 yds missed · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedM. Hollins dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 21 catchable balls before this +8% NO LV: Punt
2 Q1 12:47 C. Olave dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 37 catchable balls before this +4% LV NO: Punt
3 Q1 10:27 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% LV LV: Punt
4 Q1 8:32 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% LV LV: Punt
5 Q1 7:00 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q2 15:00 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +4% NO LV: Turnover on downs
7 Q2 14:23 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedChop Block on the Raiders (Brandon Bolden), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1225 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 +9% NO LV: Turnover
8 Q2 11:17 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% NO LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Adam Trautman (NO TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • P.J. Williams (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Saints 100%

Final margin
Saints by 24
Luck in points
4.8 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 28.8
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 3% · Saints 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Raiders · Saints

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