Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022
Titans at Texans, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Texans 17–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 10 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 6.4 points to the Texans.
An off day for the Texans: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:49 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 15 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 Tennessee Titans | 17 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Titans about even · −2 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Titans win 10, Texans win 0.
- 1 TEN 34 HOU 0
- 2 TEN 35 HOU 7
- 3 TEN 25 HOU 0
- 4 TEN 28 HOU 6
- 5 TEN 30 HOU 10
- 6 TEN 34 HOU 17
- 7 TEN 31 HOU 17
- 8 TEN 20 HOU 9
- 9 TEN 22 HOU 14
- 10 TEN 17 HOU 14
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Texans
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.30 | +0.10 | better by 0.19 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.50 | +0.10 | better by 0.60 |
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.50 | +0.04 | worse by 0.54 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.30 | +0.14 | worse by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Titans win 98% of them, Texans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Titans by 17+ | 79.5% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 14.2% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 4.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Texans by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Titans by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 16.5.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Bullock, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 85% expected
- R. Bullock, 29 yds made · 97% expected
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:31 | R. Bullock missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 19 of 29 from 45+ before | +8% HOU | TEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:49 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +15% TEN | HOU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:02 | The Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% HOU | TEN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 12:02 | The Titans were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +8% HOU | TEN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 4:29 | The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +11% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:31 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +7% HOU | TEN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 9:51 | The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% TEN | TEN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 4:11 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% TEN | HOU: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- A.J. Cann (HOU G), out · 0.4 pts
- Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Maliek Collins (HOU DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 7.0 pts
- Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Joshua Kalu (TEN FS), out · 0.2 pts
- Rashad Weaver (TEN LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Titans 96% · Texans 4%
- Final margin
- Titans by 7
- Luck in points
- 9.5 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 16.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Titans 98% · Texans 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · 
Titans · 
Texans
More from Week 8 2022
- Ravens at Buccaneers BAL 27–22 · replay 79% for the winner
- Broncos vs Jaguars DEN 21–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- Cardinals at Vikings MIN 34–26 · replay 88% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons ATL 37–34 · replay 58% for the winner
- Bears at Cowboys DAL 49–29 · replay 93% for the winner
- Raiders at Saints NO 24–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Dolphins at Lions MIA 31–27 · replay 66% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 22–17 · replay 45% for the winner
- Steelers at Eagles PHI 35–13 · replay 97% for the winner
- Giants at Seahawks SEA 27–13 · replay 82% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 31–14 · replay 63% for the winner
- Commanders at Colts WAS 17–16 · replay 74% for the winner
- Packers at Bills BUF 27–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CLE 32–13 · replay 81% for the winner