luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Commanders at Colts, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Colts 17–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.8 points to the Colts.

An off day for the Colts: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:22 left): M. Pittman dropped a catchable pass, worth 39 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Washington Commanders 17
Indianapolis Colts 16

October 30, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +26 Commanders lucky · −26 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 7, Colts win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 29 IND 3
  2. 2 WAS 37 IND 17
  3. 3 WAS 26 IND 10
  4. 4 WAS 21 IND 10
  5. 5 WAS 20 IND 13
  6. 6 WAS 21 IND 17
  7. 7 WAS 37 IND 35
  8. 8 WAS 24 IND 27
  9. 9 WAS 19 IND 28
  10. 10 WAS 17 IND 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Colts

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Commanders they would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.

32 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained +0.03 +0.05 worse by 0.02
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.03 +0.11 better by 0.08
Colts offenseEPA per play gained +0.03 +0.10 worse by 0.06
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.03 +0.09 better by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 74% of them, Colts 26%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+28.9%
Commanders by 9–1621.0%
Commanders by 1–823.3%
Level after regulation2.3%
Colts by 1–813.2%
Colts by 9–167.9%
Colts by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Commanders by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:49 The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
2 Q3 9:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q3 3:35 The Colts fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% WAS IND: Field goal
4 Q3 2:05 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% IND WAS: Punt
5 Q3 0:37 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +18% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 12:32 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% IND WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 0:22 M. Pittman dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 57 catchable balls before this +39% WAS IND: End of game
8 Q4 0:06 The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +30% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Ryan (IND QB), out, replaced by s.ehlinger · 4.4 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cole Turner (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 39% · Colts 61%

Final margin
Commanders by 1
Luck in points
6.0 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 74% · Colts 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Commanders · Colts

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