luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Colts at Cowboys, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Colts 54–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.3 points to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:56 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 23 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 19
Dallas Cowboys 54

December 4, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −11

Luck index +8 Cowboys about even · −8 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 IND 28 DAL 20
  2. 2 IND 17 DAL 20
  3. 3 IND 21 DAL 27
  4. 4 IND 33 DAL 41
  5. 5 IND 16 DAL 27
  6. 6 IND 16 DAL 30
  7. 7 IND 23 DAL 40
  8. 8 IND 14 DAL 36
  9. 9 IND 19 DAL 45
  10. 10 IND 3 DAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 8% of them, Cowboys 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.6%
Colts by 9–161.7%
Colts by 1–85.6%
Level after regulation1.0%
Cowboys by 1–814.6%
Cowboys by 9–1618.8%
Cowboys by 17+57.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 35. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 25.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:17 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:58 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:31 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:28 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% DAL IND: Punt
5 Q2 2:56 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +23% IND DAL: Punt
6 Q2 0:20 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:42 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsIllegal Blindside Block on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2264 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:46 The Colts fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +18% DAL IND: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 35
Luck in points
9.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 25.3
Replay with same day's form
Colts 8% · Cowboys 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Colts · Cowboys

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