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NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Colts at Cowboys, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Colts 54–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:46 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 18 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 19
Dallas Cowboys 54

December 4, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −11

Luck index +8 Cowboys about even · −8 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 1, Cowboys win 9.

  1. 1 IND 24 DAL 19
  2. 2 IND 35 DAL 37
  3. 3 IND 19 DAL 24
  4. 4 IND 17 DAL 26
  5. 5 IND 23 DAL 35
  6. 6 IND 10 DAL 25
  7. 7 IND 21 DAL 39
  8. 8 IND 16 DAL 38
  9. 9 IND 9 DAL 36
  10. 10 IND 7 DAL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 8% of them, Cowboys 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+0.5%
Colts by 9–161.7%
Colts by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation0.8%
Cowboys by 1–811.8%
Cowboys by 9–1620.9%
Cowboys by 17+59.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.6 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 35, without the luck Cowboys by 27.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 6 for 88 yards, Cowboys 3 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:42 Fair Catch Interference on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 15 yards 0% IND +1.1 pts
Q2 9:31 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 0:13 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 9 yards +1% DAL +0.8 pts
Q3 13:29 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +1% IND +1.0 pts
Q3 7:31 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q3 0:42 Illegal Blindside Block on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yards +4% DAL +1.5 pts
Q4 9:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys, 18 yards 0% IND +1.0 pts
Q4 7:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 44 yards 0% DAL +3.8 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:58 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:56 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +7% IND DAL: Punt
3 Q2 1:12 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% IND IND: Turnover
4 Q2 1:03 The Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +7% DAL IND: End of half
5 Q2 0:20 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:42 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsIllegal Blindside Block on the Colts (Zaire Franklin), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2264 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:29 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:46 The Colts fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +18% DAL IND: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kenny Moore (IND CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 35
Luck in points
7.6 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 27.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 8% · Cowboys 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Colts · Cowboys

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