luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Jaguars at Lions, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Jaguars 40–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:50 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Detroit Lions 40

December 4, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −1

Luck index +10 Lions about even · −10 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Lions win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 17 DET 10
  2. 2 JAX 24 DET 27
  3. 3 JAX 20 DET 24
  4. 4 JAX 14 DET 21
  5. 5 JAX 0 DET 10
  6. 6 JAX 6 DET 19
  7. 7 JAX 7 DET 23
  8. 8 JAX 13 DET 31
  9. 9 JAX 7 DET 30
  10. 10 JAX 6 DET 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 10% of them, Lions 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.4%
Jaguars by 9–161.9%
Jaguars by 1–86.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Lions by 1–819.3%
Lions by 9–1627.2%
Lions by 17+43.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 26. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 17.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Badgley, 45 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Badgley, 47 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Patterson, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Badgley, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Badgley, 44 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Jaguars fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DET JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 11:33 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% DET JAX: Field goal
4 Q1 9:39 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q1 7:50 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedZ. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 66 catchable balls before this +9% DET JAX: Field goal
6 Q1 1:34 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% DET JAX: Punt
7 Q2 12:47 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% JAX DET: Field goal
8 Q2 5:40 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% JAX JAX: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Brown (DET C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tom Kennedy (DET WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DET CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Andre Cisco (JAX SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 26
Luck in points
9.0 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 17.0
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 10% · Lions 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Jaguars · Lions

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