luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Jaguars at Lions, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Jaguars 40–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Jaguars: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Detroit Lions 40

December 4, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −1

Luck index +8 Lions about even · −8 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Lions win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 27 DET 22
  2. 2 JAX 27 DET 30
  3. 3 JAX 10 DET 16
  4. 4 JAX 20 DET 28
  5. 5 JAX 17 DET 28
  6. 6 JAX 21 DET 34
  7. 7 JAX 7 DET 24
  8. 8 JAX 13 DET 31
  9. 9 JAX 7 DET 30
  10. 10 JAX 3 DET 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jaguars

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Lions they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

31 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 +0.09 worse by 0.11
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.16 worse by 0.10
Lions offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.09 better by 0.17
Lions defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.18 better by 0.20

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 8% of them, Lions 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.2%
Jaguars by 9–161.1%
Jaguars by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation1.8%
Lions by 1–818.4%
Lions by 9–1624.4%
Lions by 17+48.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.4 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 26, without the luck Lions by 16.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Badgley, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Badgley, 47 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Patterson, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Badgley, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • M. Badgley, 44 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 5 for 24 yards, Lions 1 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:55 False Start on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q3 13:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Chris Claybrooks), 5 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q3 9:27 False Start on the Jaguars (Dan Arnold), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.4 pts
Q3 1:06 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards 0% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 13:12 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards 0% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 1:12 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.4 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Jaguars fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DET JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 11:33 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% DET JAX: Field goal
4 Q1 9:39 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
5 Q1 7:50 Z. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 66 catchable balls before this +7% DET JAX: Field goal
6 Q1 1:34 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% DET JAX: Punt
7 Q2 12:47 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% JAX DET: Field goal
8 Q2 5:40 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% JAX JAX: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Evan Brown (DET C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tom Kennedy (DET WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DET CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Andre Cisco (JAX SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Lions 100%

Final margin
Lions by 26
Luck in points
9.4 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 16.6
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 8% · Lions 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Jaguars · Lions

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