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NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Browns at Texans, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Texans 27–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:15 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 34 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 27
Houston Texans 14

December 4, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Browns −7.5

Luck index +16 Browns about even · −16 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 CLE 38 HOU 7
  2. 2 CLE 30 HOU 6
  3. 3 CLE 36 HOU 16
  4. 4 CLE 45 HOU 28
  5. 5 CLE 30 HOU 16
  6. 6 CLE 16 HOU 6
  7. 7 CLE 22 HOU 16
  8. 8 CLE 16 HOU 14
  9. 9 CLE 20 HOU 24
  10. 10 CLE 16 HOU 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 84% of them, Texans 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+43.0%
Browns by 9–1620.7%
Browns by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Texans by 1–89.7%
Texans by 9–164.4%
Texans by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 13, without the luck Browns by 10.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. York, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. York, 42 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 56 yards, Texans 5 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:25 Face Mask on the Texans (Brevin Jordan), 15 yards +3% CLE +1.5 pts
Q1 9:20 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q2 12:25 False Start on the Browns, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 7:53 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards +3% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 1:22 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 5 yards +3% CLE +0.6 pts
Q3 10:47 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans (Desmond King), 1 yard 0% CLE +0.1 pts
Q3 9:22 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Taven Bryan), 15 yards, wiping out the play +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 7:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Chase Winovich), 15 yards +5% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 11:04 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards +3% HOU +1.2 pts
Q4 6:19 False Start on the Browns (Deshaun Watson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 5:17 Defensive Offside on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +1.0 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:05 The Browns fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU CLE: Turnover
2 Q1 3:35 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% HOU CLE: Safety
3 Q2 13:06 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +6% CLE HOU: Punt
4 Q2 4:00 Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +15% CLE CLE: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 0:27 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +6% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 0:03 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q3 10:15 The Texans fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +34% CLE HOU: Field goal
8 Q4 9:36 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +14% CLE HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 94% · Texans 6%

Final margin
Browns by 13
Luck in points
2.8 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 10.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 84% · Texans 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Browns · Texans

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