luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Browns at Texans, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Texans 27–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.2 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Browns were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:15 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 33 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 27
Houston Texans 14

December 4, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Browns −7.5

Luck index +18 Browns about even · −18 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 CLE 33 HOU 3
  2. 2 CLE 36 HOU 13
  3. 3 CLE 36 HOU 17
  4. 4 CLE 30 HOU 14
  5. 5 CLE 33 HOU 20
  6. 6 CLE 37 HOU 27
  7. 7 CLE 29 HOU 23
  8. 8 CLE 29 HOU 26
  9. 9 CLE 27 HOU 30
  10. 10 CLE 13 HOU 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 82% of them, Texans 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+41.3%
Browns by 9–1621.7%
Browns by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Texans by 1–810.4%
Texans by 9–164.9%
Texans by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 11.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. York, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. York, 42 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:05 The Browns fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% HOU CLE: Turnover
2 Q1 5:04 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
3 Q2 13:06 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% CLE HOU: Punt
4 Q2 4:00 Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +15% CLE CLE: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 0:27 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 0:03 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q3 10:15 The Texans fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +33% CLE HOU: Field goal
8 Q4 9:36 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +14% CLE HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 97% · Texans 3%

Final margin
Browns by 13
Luck in points
1.2 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 82% · Texans 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Browns · Texans

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