Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022
Commanders at Giants, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?
The Giants and the Commanders tied 20–20. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Commanders: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Commanders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:35 left): the Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 36 points of win probability to the Commanders.
Final (OT)
 Washington Commanders | 20 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index −41 Giants unlucky · +41 Commanders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Commanders win 1, Giants win 9.
- 1 WAS 26 NYG 19
- 2 WAS 21 NYG 23
- 3 WAS 20 NYG 25
- 4 WAS 15 NYG 25
- 5 WAS 10 NYG 23
- 6 WAS 26 NYG 41
- 7 WAS 9 NYG 28
- 8 WAS 10 NYG 32
- 9 WAS 10 NYG 37
- 10 WAS 0 NYG 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Commanders
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
48 points apart for the Commanders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.06 | better by 0.04 |
| Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.09 | better by 0.11 |
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.04 | worse by 0.06 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.14 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Commanders win 9% of them, Giants 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Commanders by 17+ | 0.6% |
| Commanders by 9–16 | 1.9% |
| Commanders by 1–8 | 5.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.1% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 12.4% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Giants by 17+ | 57.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 21 yds made · 98% expected
- G. Gano, 48 yds made · 79% expected
- J. Slye, 42 yds made · 84% expected
- G. Gano, 27 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Slye, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
- G. Gano, 58 yds missed · 65% expected
Penalties: Commanders 7 for 55 yards, Giants 4 for 34 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:47 | Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Kamren Curl), 5 yards | +2% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:49 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Fabian Moreau), 5 yards | +8% WAS +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:24 | False Start on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q3 5:42 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 10 yards | +3% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:02 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% NYG +2.0 pts |
| Q4 9:30 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 9 yards | +3% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:00 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Rachad Wildgoose), 8 yards | +2% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:48 | Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 5 yards | +3% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 6:22 | Taunting on the Giants, 15 yards | +5% WAS +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 12 yards | +20% NYG +1.1 pts |
| OT 1:42 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% WAS +0.3 pts |
Commanders penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 1:45 | D. Slayton dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 40 catchable balls before this | +16% WAS | NYG: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 1:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +20% NYG | NYG: End of game |
| 3 | Q4 0:52 | The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +35% WAS | WAS: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 0:35 | The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +36% WAS | WAS: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 0:29 | The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +13% WAS | WAS: Punt |
| 6 | OT 8:09 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +15% WAS | NYG: Punt |
| 7 | OT 1:50 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +24% WAS | NYG: Punt |
| 8 | OT 0:10 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +19% NYG | NYG: Missed field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
- Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Lawrence Cager (NYG TE), out · 0.3 pts
- Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Trai Turner (WAS G), out · 0.4 pts
- Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Commanders 39% · Giants 61%
- Final margin
- even
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for the Commanders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Giants by 2.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Commanders 9% · Giants 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · 
Commanders · 
Giants
More from Week 13 2022
- Bills at Patriots BUF 24–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Browns at Texans CLE 27–14 · replay 84% for the winner
- Broncos at Ravens BAL 10–9 · replay 49% for the winner
- Packers at Bears GB 28–19 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jaguars at Lions DET 40–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Jets at Vikings MIN 27–22 · replay 74% for the winner
- Steelers at Falcons PIT 19–16 · replay 51% for the winner
- Titans at Eagles PHI 35–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers SF 33–17 · replay 75% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams SEA 27–23 · replay 90% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bengals CIN 27–24 · replay 65% for the winner
- Chargers at Raiders LV 27–20 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colts at Cowboys DAL 54–19 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers TB 17–16 · replay 14% for the winner