luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Steelers?

A little. Judgment calls have been worth +1.27 points a game to the Steelers since 2019, the 1st-most of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.03 points a game over 5 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Steelers minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+0.34 15th910 –
202517+1.06 6th6265 −0.10 (1)
202417+1.64 3rd5574 −4.69 (1)
202317+0.88 6th5855 −0.38 (1)
202217−0.16 18th6159 –
202117+2.72 1st6365 +2.30 (1)
202016+1.01 8th5461 −2.29 (1)
201916+1.85 3rd6481 –

Biggest calls for the Steelers

  1. Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Amon-Ra St. Brown), 0 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 16 · 100 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 13 · 47 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Isaac TeSlaa), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 16 · 45 pts of win probability
  4. Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Carson Wentz), 16 yards · 2025 Week 4 · 31 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 5 · 29 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Steven Nelson), 9 yards, wiping out the play · 2020 Week 16 · 46 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Devin Bush Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 10 · 35 pts of win probability
  3. Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yards · 2022 Week 16 · 28 pts of win probability
  4. Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers, 15 yards · 2022 Week 17 · 25 pts of win probability
  5. Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 6 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 1 · 24 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Steelers?

A little. Judgment calls have been worth +1.27 points a game to the Steelers since 2019, the 1st-most of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: −1.03 points a game over 5 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Pittsburgh Steelers, every season