Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Falcons at Steelers, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Falcons 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Before kickoff the Steelers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:16 left): Return touchdown by the Steelers, worth 28 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 13 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Steelers about even · −12 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Steelers win 9.
- 1 ATL 19 PIT 13
- 2 ATL 9 PIT 12
- 3 ATL 12 PIT 17
- 4 ATL 10 PIT 19
- 5 ATL 23 PIT 34
- 6 ATL 20 PIT 33
- 7 ATL 12 PIT 28
- 8 ATL 13 PIT 32
- 9 ATL 7 PIT 31
- 10 ATL 6 PIT 36
Your call
Did the Steelers earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Steelers by 5.0, 65% to win. The Steelers won by 7: the pick was right. The final margin was 2.0 points from ours; 79% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Falcons win | 34.8% |
| Steelers win | 65.2% |
| Middle 50%: Falcons by 3 to Steelers by 14 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Falcons by 17 to Steelers by 26 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Falcons by 21 to Steelers by 30 | 95% |
| Exactly Steelers by 3 | 8.5% |
| Exactly Falcons by 3 | 7.1% |
| Exactly Steelers by 7 | 5.7% |
| Exactly Steelers by 14 | 4.5% |
| Exactly Steelers by 10 | 4.3% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 12% of them, Steelers 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 3.1% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 7.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 21.5% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 48.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Boswell, 28 yds made · 99% expected
- N. Folk, 54 yds missed · 73% expected
- N. Folk, 45 yds missed · 87% expected
- N. Folk, 51 yds made · 75% expected
- N. Folk, 43 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Boswell, 56 yds missed · 73% expected
Penalties: Falcons 9 for 96 yards, Steelers 7 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:26 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +4% PIT +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:06 | Defensive Holding on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 37 yards | +14% PIT +3.8 pts |
| Q2 12:28 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Josh Woods), 10 yards | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:56 | Face Mask on the Steelers, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ATL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:19 | Delay of Game on the Steelers, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.1 pts |
| Q2 3:56 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% PIT +1.9 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% ATL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:00 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.1 pts |
| Q3 12:08 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Yahya Black), 5 yards | +3% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:31 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons (Sydney Brown), 9 yards | 0% PIT +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:19 | Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Derrick Harmon), 5 yards | +1% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:14 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 15 yards | +4% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:04 | False Start on the Steelers (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 10:35 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Falcons (Jake Bailey), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% PIT 0.0 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:48 | The Steelers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% ATL | PIT: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 14:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 37 yardsJudgment calls · 29 flags in 5989 snaps before, position avg 1 per 211 | +14% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 1:56 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 34 flags in 6363 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 | +9% ATL | ATL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 1:49 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +8% PIT | PIT: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 4:46 | D. Metcalf dropped a catchable passDrops · 16 drops on 336 catchable balls before this | +13% ATL | PIT: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:16 | The Falcons threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams | +28% PIT | ATL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 11:23 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +8% PIT | ATL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:04 | C. Boswell missed a 56-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 73 of 89 from 45+ before | +10% ATL | PIT: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joey Porter Jr. (PIT CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Jalon Walker (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 2% · Steelers 98%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Steelers by 14.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 12% · Steelers 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Falcons · 
Steelers
More from Week 1 2026
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 43% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 51% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 · replay 86% for the winner