One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Falcons in one-score games

The Falcons are 0–3 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 5–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.6 of those 3. Since 2019: 32–42 in 74 one-score games, 36.7 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Falcons win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.6 0–3

2025 +1.0 5–5

2024 −0.5 6–6

2023 −2.1 4–6

2022 −1.1 5–8

2021 +1.3 7–2

2020 −2.1 2–8

2019 −0.5 3–4

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–3	0.6 of 3	−0.6	3–6
2025	5–5	4.0 of 10	+1.0	8–9
2024	6–6	6.5 of 12	−0.5	8–9
2023	4–6	6.1 of 10	−2.1	7–10
2022	5–8	6.1 of 13	−1.1	7–10
2021	7–2	5.7 of 9	+1.3	7–10
2020	2–8	4.1 of 10	−2.1	4–12
2019	3–4	3.5 of 7	−0.5	7–9

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Steelers	L 13–20	12%	−12
Week 5	vs Ravens	L 23–30	19%	−19
Week 6	vs Bears	L 23–31	32%	−32

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Atlanta Falcons, every season