One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Chargers in one-score games

The Chargers are 0–3 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 6–2 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.8 of those 3. Since 2019: 32–43 in 75 one-score games, 38.7 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Chargers win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.8 0–3

2025 +0.5 6–2

2024 +1.3 4–4

2023 −1.6 3–8

2022 +1.7 7–5

2021 −1.0 5–5

2020 −1.1 5–7

2019 −5.8 2–9

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–3	0.8 of 3	−0.8	0–8
2025	6–2	5.5 of 8	+0.5	11–6
2024	4–4	2.7 of 8	+1.3	11–6
2023	3–8	4.6 of 11	−1.6	5–12
2022	7–5	5.3 of 12	+1.7	10–7
2021	5–5	6.0 of 10	−1.0	9–8
2020	5–7	6.1 of 12	−1.1	7–9
2019	2–9	7.8 of 11	−5.8	5–11

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 3	@ Bills	L 16–24	30%	−30
Week 4	@ Seahawks	L 23–30	19%	−19
Week 5	vs Broncos	L 17–23	29%	−29

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Los Angeles Chargers, every season