luckadjusted

One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Chargers in one-score games

The Chargers are 0–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 6–2 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.0 of those 0. Since 2019: 32–40 in 72 one-score games, 38.0 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Chargers win in replays (regular season).

SeasonOne-score recordReplay wins in those gamesClose-game luckOverall record
20260–00.0 of 0 0.00–2
20256–25.5 of 8 +0.511–6
20244–42.5 of 8 +1.511–6
20233–84.9 of 11 −1.95–12
20227–55.3 of 12 +1.710–7
20215–56.2 of 10 −1.29–8
20205–76.0 of 12 −1.07–9
20192–97.6 of 11 −5.65–11

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Los Angeles Chargers, every season