2019 season · final

Los Angeles Chargers, 2019: game by game

The Chargers went 5–11 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.8 wins. Luck cost them 5.8: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–9.

Every game

How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Colts	W 30–24	57%	+43
Week 2	@ Lions	L 10–13	72%	−72
Week 3	vs Texans	L 20–27	56%	−56
Week 4	@ Dolphins	W 30–10	96%	+4
Week 5	vs Broncos	L 13–20	64%	−64
Week 6	vs Steelers	L 17–24	83%	−83
Week 7	@ Titans	L 20–23	80%	−80
Week 8	@ Bears	W 17–16	78%	+22
Week 9	vs Packers	W 26–11	87%	+13
Week 10	@ Raiders	L 24–26	59%	−59
Week 11	vs Chiefs	L 17–24	64%	−64
Week 13	@ Broncos	L 20–23	86%	−86
Week 14	@ Jaguars	W 45–10	96%	+4
Week 15	vs Vikings	L 10–39	26%	−26
Week 16	vs Raiders	L 17–24	58%	−58
Week 17	@ Chiefs	L 21–31	20%	−20

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +43 vs IND

Wk 2 −72 @ DET

Wk 3 −56 vs HOU

Wk 4 +4 @ MIA

Wk 5 −64 vs DEN

Wk 6 −83 vs PIT

Wk 7 −80 @ TEN

Wk 8 +22 @ CHI

Wk 9 +13 vs GB

Wk 10 −59 @ OAK

Wk 11 −64 vs KC

Wk 13 −86 @ DEN

Wk 14 +4 @ JAX

Wk 15 −26 vs MIN

Wk 16 −58 vs OAK

Wk 17 −20 @ KC

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+10.9	+0.68
3rd & 4th downs	+2.0	+0.12
Rest	+1.8	+0.11
Judgment calls	+1.1	+0.07
Injuries	−12.4	−0.78
Fumble bounces	−17.3	−1.08