2019 season · final
Los Angeles Chargers, 2019: game by game
The Chargers went 5–11 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.0 wins. Luck cost them 6.0: the unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–9.
Every game
How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Colts | W 30–24 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 2 | @ Lions | L 10–13 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | L 20–27 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 4 | @ Dolphins | W 30–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 5 | vs Broncos | L 13–20 | 65% | −65 |
| Week 6 | vs Steelers | L 17–24 | 84% | −84 |
| Week 7 | @ Titans | L 20–23 | 80% | −80 |
| Week 8 | @ Bears | W 17–16 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 9 | vs Packers | W 26–11 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 10 | @ Raiders | L 24–26 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 11 | vs Chiefs | L 17–24 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 13 | @ Broncos | L 20–23 | 87% | −87 |
| Week 14 | @ Jaguars | W 45–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 15 | vs Vikings | L 10–39 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 16 | vs Raiders | L 17–24 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 17 | @ Chiefs | L 21–31 | 19% | −19 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +1.19 | +10.9 |
| Rest | +0.05 | +1.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.21 | +1.1 |
| Injuries | −0.27 | −9.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.28 | +5.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.90 | −23.3 |