One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Lions in one-score games

The Lions are 1–0 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.4 of those 1. Since 2019: 29–33–2 in 64 one-score games, 31.7 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Lions win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.6 1–0

2025 −1.3 3–5

2024 +1.8 7–2

2023 +0.6 5–3

2022 +0.9 4–5

2021 −1.2 2–6–1

2020 −0.6 4–4

2019 −2.6 3–8–1

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–0	0.4 of 1	+0.6	1–1
2025	3–5	4.3 of 8	−1.3	9–8
2024	7–2	5.2 of 9	+1.8	15–2
2023	5–3	4.4 of 8	+0.6	12–5
2022	4–5	3.1 of 9	+0.9	9–8
2021	2–6–1	3.7 of 9	−1.2	3–13–1
2020	4–4	4.6 of 8	−0.6	5–11
2019	3–8–1	6.1 of 12	−2.6	3–12–1

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Saints	W 31–30	41%	+59

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Detroit Lions, every season