One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Lions in one-score games

The Lions are 4–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 3–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 3.5 of those 5. Since 2019: 32–34–2 in 68 one-score games, 35.3 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Lions win in replays (regular season).

2026 +0.5 4–1

2025 −1.3 3–5

2024 +1.6 7–2

2023 +0.4 5–3

2022 +0.7 4–5

2021 −1.2 2–6–1

2020 −0.5 4–4

2019 −2.6 3–8–1

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	4–1	3.5 of 5	+0.5	6–2
2025	3–5	4.3 of 8	−1.3	9–8
2024	7–2	5.4 of 9	+1.6	15–2
2023	5–3	4.6 of 8	+0.4	12–5
2022	4–5	3.3 of 9	+0.7	9–8
2021	2–6–1	3.7 of 9	−1.2	3–13–1
2020	4–4	4.5 of 8	−0.5	5–11
2019	3–8–1	6.1 of 12	−2.6	3–12–1

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Saints	W 31–30	43%	+57
Week 3	vs Jets	W 31–24	93%	+7
Week 4	@ Panthers	L 26–32	33%	−33
Week 7	vs Packers	W 20–17	89%	+11
Week 8	vs Vikings	W 19–15	88%	+12

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Detroit Lions, every season