2026 season · in progress
Detroit Lions, 2026: game by game
The Lions went 6–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 5.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–1.
Every game
How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Saints | W 31–30 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 2 | @ Bills | L 31–41 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 3 | vs Jets | W 31–24 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 4 | @ Panthers | L 26–32 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 5 | @ Cardinals | W 45–21 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 7 | vs Packers | W 20–17 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 8 | vs Vikings | W 19–15 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 9 | @ Dolphins | W 19–9 | 85% | +15 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Lions win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 · Nov 15 | vs Patriots |  Lions by 0.8 | 52% |
| Week 11 · Nov 22 | vs Buccaneers | Lions by 5.8 | 67% |
| Week 12 · Nov 26 | vs Bears | Lions by 2.0 | 56% |
| Week 13 · Dec 6 | at Falcons | Lions by 3.4 | 60% |
| Week 14 · Dec 13 | vs Titans | Lions by 13.3 | 84% |
| Week 15 · Dec 20 | at Vikings | Lions by 0.6 | 52% |
| Week 16 · Dec 28 | vs Giants | Lions by 7.3 | 71% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | at Bears |  Bears by 2.7 | 42% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | at Packers |  Packers by 2.0 | 44% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.58 | +20.7 |
| Judgment calls | +0.37 | +7.2 |
| Injuries | +0.08 | +2.8 |
| Rest | +0.05 | +2.0 |
| Drops | −0.06 | +4.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.15 | −8.8 |