One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Commanders in one-score games

The Commanders are 1–3–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 2–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 1.7 of those 5. Since 2019: 31–33–2 in 66 one-score games, 31.2 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Commanders win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.2 1–3–1

2025 −1.6 2–5

2024 −0.1 8–4

2023 −0.8 4–6

2022 +2.0 5–3–1

2021 +0.3 5–4

2020 +0.3 3–5

2019 +0.9 3–3

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	1–3–1	1.7 of 5	−0.2	2–5–1
2025	2–5	3.6 of 7	−1.6	5–12
2024	8–4	8.1 of 12	−0.1	12–5
2023	4–6	4.8 of 10	−0.8	4–13
2022	5–3–1	3.5 of 9	+2.0	8–8–1
2021	5–4	4.7 of 9	+0.3	7–10
2020	3–5	2.7 of 8	+0.3	7–9
2019	3–3	2.1 of 6	+0.9	3–13

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Eagles	L 22–24	59%	−59
Week 3	vs Seahawks	W 33–31	26%	+74
Week 5	vs Giants	T 27–27	54%	−4
Week 6	@ 49ers	L 17–23	12%	−12
Week 9	vs Rams	L 13–20	16%	−16

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Washington Commanders, every season