One-score games · decided by 8 points or fewer

The Commanders in one-score games

The Commanders are 0–1 in one-score games in 2026 so far, after 2–5 in 2025. Replayed with the same day’s form, they win 0.6 of those 1. Since 2019: 30–31–1 in 62 one-score games, 30.5 wins in replays.

A good record in close games looks like clutch. It rarely lasts: from 2019 to 2025, a team’s win rate in one-score games carried into the next season at a correlation of 0.12, against 0.39 for its overall record. How often a team wins those games in replays says what its play was worth.

Close-game luck by season

One-score wins minus how many of those games the Commanders win in replays (regular season).

2026 −0.6 0–1

2025 −1.4 2–5

2024 +0.2 8–4

2023 −1.2 4–6

2022 +1.6 5–3–1

2021 +0.3 5–4

2020 +0.2 3–5

2019 +0.8 3–3

Season	One-score record	Replay wins in those games	Close-game luck	Overall record
2026	0–1	0.6 of 1	−0.6	0–2
2025	2–5	3.4 of 7	−1.4	5–12
2024	8–4	7.8 of 12	+0.2	12–5
2023	4–6	5.2 of 10	−1.2	4–13
2022	5–3–1	3.9 of 9	+1.6	8–8–1
2021	5–4	4.7 of 9	+0.3	7–10
2020	3–5	2.8 of 8	+0.2	7–9
2019	3–3	2.2 of 6	+0.8	3–13

2026 one-score games

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Eagles	L 22–24	59%	−59

Every team’s one-score record, 2026 · Washington Commanders, every season