luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Seahawks at Commanders, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Seahawks 33–31, but the replays lean toward the Seahawks: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:09 left): Return touchdown by the Commanders, worth 30 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 31
Washington Commanders 33

September 27, 2026 · Northwest Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −8.5

Luck index +74 Commanders very lucky · −74 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 7, Commanders win 3.

  1. 1 SEA 30 WAS 0
  2. 2 SEA 45 WAS 23
  3. 3 SEA 33 WAS 17
  4. 4 SEA 22 WAS 10
  5. 5 SEA 44 WAS 36
  6. 6 SEA 27 WAS 22
  7. 7 SEA 22 WAS 20
  8. 8 SEA 24 WAS 27
  9. 9 SEA 24 WAS 33
  10. 10 SEA 30 WAS 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 74% of them, Commanders 26%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+28.0%
Seahawks by 9–1620.3%
Seahawks by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation3.5%
Commanders by 1–814.9%
Commanders by 9–167.5%
Commanders by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Commanders by 2, without the luck Commanders by 7.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 57 yds made · 62% expected
  • D. Stevens, 57 yds made · 57% expected
  • D. Stevens, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 8 for 53 yards, Commanders 9 for 57 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:51 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.4 pts
Q1 6:14 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 5:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Josh Jobe), 14 yards +1% WAS +1.3 pts
Q1 4:26 Illegal Formation on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% SEA +5.0 pts
Q2 14:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Quan Martin), 2 yards +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 12:37 False Start on the Commanders (John Bates), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 11:19 False Start on the Seahawks (AJ Barner), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 1:08 False Start on the Seahawks (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q3 10:43 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Commanders (Drew Stevens), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA 0.0 pts
Q3 9:25 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Mike Sainristil), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 2:34 Illegal Shift on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 0:34 False Start on the Seahawks (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 14:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (K'Lavon Chaisson), 15 yards +4% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 11:53 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Seahawks (Jason Myers), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 10:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (AJ Finley), 15 yards +10% WAS +2.3 pts
Q4 4:24 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 4:09 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Commanders, 15 yards +5% SEA +1.4 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:06 The Seahawks fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WAS SEA: Punt
2 Q1 4:26 Illegal Formation on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:51 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% WAS SEA: Field goal
4 Q4 10:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (AJ Finley), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 525 snaps before, position avg 1 per 461 +10% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q4 8:40 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 4:24 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 4:09 The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Commanders, 15 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by the CommandersSpecial teams +30% WAS SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:55 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% WAS WAS: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 2.2 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (WAS T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Nick Cross (WAS S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Frankie Luvu (WAS LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Julian Love (SEA S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Anthony Bradford (SEA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 17% · Commanders 83%

Final margin
Commanders by 2
Luck in points
5.8 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 74% · Commanders 26% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Seahawks · Commanders

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