Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026
Rams at Broncos, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?
The Broncos beat the Rams 30–26, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Broncos.
The Broncos won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Broncos were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:01 left): Return touchdown by the Broncos, worth 62 points of win probability to the Broncos.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 26 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +93 Broncos very lucky · −93 Rams
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 9, Broncos win 1.
- 1 LA 38 DEN 7
- 2 LA 37 DEN 13
- 3 LA 44 DEN 23
- 4 LA 21 DEN 3
- 5 LA 27 DEN 12
- 6 LA 26 DEN 13
- 7 LA 19 DEN 11
- 8 LA 27 DEN 21
- 9 LA 30 DEN 27
- 10 LA 29 DEN 35
Your call
Did the Broncos earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Broncos won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.20 | worse by 0.04 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.09 | better by 0.01 |
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | +0.09 | worse by 0.01 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.03 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 93% of them, Broncos 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 53.6% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 17.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 4.8% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Lutz, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
- H. Mevis, 36 yds made · 92% expected
- H. Mevis, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- H. Mevis, 40 yds made · 87% expected
- H. Mevis, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Rams 13 for 91 yards, Broncos 5 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:18 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Emmanuel Forbes), 15 yards | +3% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:43 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +4% DEN +1.8 pts |
| Q2 11:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Riley Moss), 13 yards | +5% LA +1.8 pts |
| Q2 6:56 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DEN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 6:33 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Davante Adams), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% DEN +2.1 pts |
| Q2 4:38 | Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% LA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:18 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:34 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:17 | Face Mask on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 6 yards | +2% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:33 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +2% DEN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:33 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Rams (Emmanuel Forbes), 13 yards, wiping out the play | +2% LA +0.2 pts |
| Q4 13:07 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:33 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +9% LA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 1:15 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 4 yards, wiping out the play | +59% DEN +4.3 pts |
| Q4 1:01 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 3 yards | +10% DEN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 0:48 | Encroachment on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 0:47 | Defensive Offside on the Rams (Trent McDuffie), 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% DEN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:02 | False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% DEN +0.1 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:30 | The Rams converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +9% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 8:44 | H. Mevis made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 3 of 4 from 45+ before | +14% LA | LA: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 5:01 | The Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BroncosSpecial teams | +62% DEN | LA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 1:15 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 952 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +59% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 1:01 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams (Quentin Lake), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 3219 snaps before, position avg 1 per 461 | +10% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:48 | The Broncos converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedEncroachment on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 0 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2921 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 | +9% DEN | DEN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:37 | D. Adams dropped a catchable passDrops · 21 drops on 440 catchable balls before this | +26% DEN | LA: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:02 | The Rams threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throwsFalse Start on the Rams, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +33% DEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
- Puka Nacua (LA WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Justin Dedich (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Kamren Kinchens (LA S), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 31% · Broncos 69%
- Final margin
- Broncos by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.1 for the Broncos
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 1.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 93% · Broncos 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · 
Rams · 
Broncos
More from Week 3 2026
- Falcons at Packers ATL 35–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Panthers at Browns CLE 21–18 · replay 9% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 30–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Texans at Colts IND 19–17 · replay 25% for the winner
- Chiefs at Dolphins KC 24–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Bills BUF 24–16 · replay 70% for the winner
- Patriots at Jaguars JAX 35–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jets at Lions DET 31–24 · replay 92% for the winner
- Seahawks at Commanders WAS 33–31 · replay 26% for the winner
- Titans at Giants NYG 12–7 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 36–30 · replay 92% for the winner
- Vikings at Buccaneers MIN 23–16 · replay 74% for the winner
- Ravens vs Cowboys BAL 34–31 · replay 75% for the winner
- Raiders at Saints LV 35–27 · replay 47% for the winner
- Eagles at Bears CHI 27–7 · replay 95% for the winner