luckadjusted
NFL Week 3 · 2026

Week 3 2026 · September 27, 2026

Chiefs at Dolphins, Week 3 2026: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 11:46 left): Illegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 24
Miami Dolphins 10

September 27, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10

Luck index +3 Chiefs about even · −3 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 10, Dolphins win 0.

  1. 1 KC 41 MIA 10
  2. 2 KC 26 MIA 0
  3. 3 KC 30 MIA 7
  4. 4 KC 34 MIA 14
  5. 5 KC 20 MIA 3
  6. 6 KC 20 MIA 6
  7. 7 KC 24 MIA 13
  8. 8 KC 26 MIA 17
  9. 9 KC 13 MIA 7
  10. 10 KC 12 MIA 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 97% of them, Dolphins 3%. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+66.7%
Chiefs by 9–1622.1%
Chiefs by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation0.3%
Dolphins by 1–81.9%
Dolphins by 9–160.7%
Dolphins by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Chiefs by 14, without the luck Chiefs by 17.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • H. Butker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • H. Butker, 50 yds missed · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 8 for 50 yards, Dolphins 8 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:54 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (Ryan Miller), 9 yards +1% KC +0.8 pts
Q1 8:56 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Will Kacmarek), 10 yards +3% KC +0.8 pts
Q1 7:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs (Nohl Williams), 5 yards +3% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 6:46 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% KC +1.6 pts
Q2 14:14 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Michael Taaffe), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% KC +2.2 pts
Q2 4:03 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 5 yards +7% MIA +1.8 pts
Q2 1:50 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (R Mason Thomas), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% KC 0.0 pts
Q2 0:54 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.1 pts
Q2 0:48 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Rashee Rice), 6 yards +2% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 11:46 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% KC +3.3 pts
Q3 10:01 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 10 yards +4% MIA +0.9 pts
Q3 3:18 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Nohl Williams), 4 yards +2% MIA +0.3 pts
Q3 2:26 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Chop Robinson), 15 yards +6% KC +1.9 pts
Q4 11:35 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (DJ Herman), 10 yards +1% KC +0.9 pts
Q4 3:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIA +1.5 pts
Q4 0:47 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs (George Karlaftis III), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% MIA +3.9 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:15 The Chiefs were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +11% MIA KC: Turnover
2 Q2 4:03 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 40 flags in 5067 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% MIA MIA: Turnover
3 Q2 3:16 The Dolphins fumbled and the Chiefs recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% KC MIA: Punt
4 Q2 2:00 The Chiefs were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +12% MIA KC: End of half
5 Q3 13:16 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q3 11:46 Illegal Shift on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +12% KC KC: Punt
7 Q3 7:28 The Dolphins got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +7% MIA MIA: Punt
8 Q3 4:40 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% MIA MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Caleb Douglas (MIA WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chamarri Conner (KC DB), out · 0.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 100% · Dolphins 0%

Final margin
Chiefs by 14
Luck in points
3.9 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 17.9
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 97% · Dolphins 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2026 games · Chiefs · Dolphins

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