luckadjusted

2026 season · in progress

Miami Dolphins, 2026: game by game

The Dolphins went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.6 wins. Luck cost them 0.6: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–0.

Every game

How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Raiders L 13–27 55% −55
Week 2 @ 49ers L 13–35 1% −1

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+2.1+1.06
Judgment calls+0.7+0.36
Drops+0.5+0.27
Rest−0.6−0.29
3rd & 4th downs−3.1−1.55
Kicks−7.7−3.87