luckadjusted

Referee · 2020–2026

Brad Rogers: flags and calls

Brad Rogers’s crews have worked 95 games since 2020: 7.9 judgment flags a game, about the same as the league average of 7.4, and 4.3 pre-snap flags. Their judgment calls were worth −0.07 points a game to the home team (league: +0.24).

Season by season

SeasonGamesJudgment flags per gamePre-snapToward home, pts
2020126.43.0−1.45
2021167.94.0+0.33
2022167.93.4+0.17
2023178.44.1+0.60
2024168.35.5−1.48
2025167.95.4+1.08
2026210.53.5−0.55

The calls that swung games most

By the change in win probability they caused.

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Chamarri Conner), 13 yards, wiping out the play · KC at JAX, 2025 Week 5 · 100 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 12 yards, wiping out the play · LV at LA, 2022 Week 14 · 31 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 34 yards, wiping out the play · CLE at CAR, 2022 Week 1 · 22 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Lions, 9 yards, wiping out the play · DET at GB, 2022 Week 18 · 22 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Eric Saubert), 0 yards, wiping out the play · SEA at SF, 2024 Week 11 · 22 pts of win probability
  6. Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play · PHI at CHI, 2022 Week 15 · 21 pts of win probability
  7. Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Tyson Alualu), 5 yards · NYJ at PIT, 2022 Week 4 · 20 pts of win probability
  8. Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Drew Sample), 10 yards, wiping out the play · CIN at HOU, 2020 Week 16 · 20 pts of win probability

Every game

WeekGameResultWinner wins the replayLuck index
2026 Week 2 Browns at Buccaneers CLE 23–19 43% +57
2026 Week 1 Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 74% +26
2025 Week 18 Lions at Bears DET 19–16 82% +18
2025 Week 17 Cowboys at Commanders DAL 30–23 30% +70
2025 Week 16 Patriots at Ravens NE 28–24 67% +33
2025 Week 15 Packers at Broncos DEN 34–26 8% +92
2025 Week 14 Bengals at Bills BUF 39–34 58% +42
2025 Week 13 Jaguars at Titans JAX 25–3 98% +2
2025 Week 12 Falcons at Saints ATL 24–10 94% +6
2025 Week 11 Bears at Vikings CHI 19–17 80% +20
2025 Week 10 Steelers at Chargers LAC 25–10 74% +26
2025 Week 8 Giants at Eagles PHI 38–20 83% +17
2025 Week 7 Panthers at Jets CAR 13–6 85% +15
2025 Week 6 49ers at Buccaneers TB 30–19 68% +32
2025 Week 5 Chiefs at Jaguars JAX 31–28 26% +74
2025 Week 4 Titans at Texans HOU 26–0 83% +17
2025 Week 3 Rams at Eagles PHI 33–26 13% +87
2025 Week 2 Commanders at Packers GB 27–18 92% +8
2024 Week 18 Vikings at Lions DET 31–9 92% +8
2024 Week 17 Cardinals at Rams LA 13–9 17% +83
2024 Week 16 Browns at Bengals CIN 24–6 99% +1
2024 Week 15 Jets at Jaguars NYJ 32–25 74% +26
2024 Week 13 Giants at Cowboys DAL 27–20 70% +30
2024 Week 12 Titans at Texans TEN 32–27 50% +50
2024 Week 11 Seahawks at 49ers SEA 20–17 35% +65
2024 Week 10 Steelers at Commanders PIT 28–27 14% +86
2024 Week 9 Raiders at Bengals CIN 41–24 98% +2
2024 Week 7 Patriots vs Jaguars JAX 32–16 88% +12
2024 Week 6 Colts at Titans IND 20–17 95% +5
2024 Week 5 Saints at Chiefs KC 26–13 71% +29
2024 Week 4 Rams at Bears CHI 24–18 28% +72
2024 Week 3 Lions at Cardinals DET 20–13 75% +25
2024 Week 2 Chargers at Panthers LAC 26–3 98% +2
2024 Week 1 Steelers at Falcons PIT 18–10 46% +54
2023 Wild Card Dolphins at Chiefs KC 26–7 62% +38
2023 Week 18 Vikings at Lions DET 30–20 72% +28
2023 Week 16 Saints at Rams LA 30–22 64% +36
2023 Week 15 Jets at Dolphins MIA 30–0 100% 0
2023 Week 14 Seahawks at 49ers SF 28–16 97% +3
2023 Week 13 Panthers at Buccaneers TB 21–18 91% +9
2023 Week 12 Steelers at Bengals PIT 16–10 85% +15
2023 Week 11 Titans at Jaguars JAX 34–14 74% +26
2023 Week 10 Giants at Cowboys DAL 49–17 100% 0
2023 Week 8 Bears at Chargers LAC 30–13 63% +37
2023 Week 7 Lions at Ravens BAL 38–6 93% +7
2023 Week 6 Patriots at Raiders LV 21–17 95% +5
2023 Week 5 Titans at Colts IND 23–16 50% +50
2023 Week 4 Seahawks at Giants SEA 24–3 89% +11
2023 Week 3 Saints at Packers GB 18–17 74% +26
2023 Week 2 Commanders at Broncos WAS 35–33 46% +54
2023 Week 1 Panthers at Falcons ATL 24–10 68% +32
2022 Week 18 Lions at Packers DET 20–16 57% +43
2022 Week 17 Panthers at Buccaneers TB 30–24 74% +26
2022 Week 16 Saints at Browns NO 17–10 53% +47
2022 Week 15 Eagles at Bears PHI 25–20 89% +11
2022 Week 14 Raiders at Rams LA 17–16 19% +81
2022 Week 12 Falcons at Commanders WAS 19–13 33% +67
2022 Week 11 Lions at Giants DET 31–18 36% +64
2022 Week 10 Jaguars at Chiefs KC 27–17 94% +6
2022 Week 9 Ravens at Saints BAL 27–13 41% +59
2022 Week 8 Bears at Cowboys DAL 49–29 93% +7
2022 Week 6 Vikings at Dolphins MIN 24–16 27% +73
2022 Week 5 Colts at Broncos IND 12–9 3% +97
2022 Week 4 Jets at Steelers NYJ 24–20 56% +44
2022 Week 3 Raiders at Titans TEN 24–22 54% +46
2022 Week 2 Seahawks at 49ers SF 27–7 73% +27
2022 Week 1 Browns at Panthers CLE 26–24 97% +3
2021 Week 18 Chiefs at Broncos KC 28–24 79% +21
2021 Week 17 Raiders at Colts LV 23–20 49% +51
2021 Week 15 Titans at Steelers PIT 19–13 67% +33
2021 Week 14 Ravens at Browns CLE 24–22 74% +26
2021 Week 13 Cowboys at Saints DAL 27–17 75% +25
2021 Week 12 Vikings at 49ers SF 34–26 83% +17
2021 Week 11 Colts at Bills IND 41–15 59% +41
2021 Week 10 Buccaneers at Washington WAS 29–19 17% +83
2021 Week 9 Titans at Rams TEN 28–16 35% +65
2021 Week 7 Jets at Patriots NE 54–13 93% +7
2021 Week 6 Packers at Bears GB 24–14 90% +10
2021 Week 5 Broncos at Steelers PIT 27–19 52% +48
2021 Week 4 Giants at Saints NYG 27–21 17% +83
2021 Week 3 Eagles at Cowboys DAL 41–21 74% +26
2021 Week 2 Texans at Browns CLE 31–21 78% +22
2021 Week 1 49ers at Lions SF 41–33 57% +43
2020 Week 17 Jets at Patriots NE 28–14 58% +42
2020 Week 16 Bengals at Texans CIN 37–31 37% +63
2020 Week 15 Buccaneers at Falcons TB 31–27 75% +25
2020 Week 12 Panthers at Vikings MIN 28–27 29% +71
2020 Week 10 49ers at Saints NO 27–13 36% +64
2020 Week 9 Raiders at Chargers LV 31–26 53% +47
2020 Week 8 Buccaneers at Giants TB 25–23 51% +49
2020 Week 7 Chiefs at Broncos KC 43–16 84% +16
2020 Week 4 Vikings at Texans MIN 31–23 88% +12
2020 Week 3 Packers at Saints GB 37–30 70% +30
2020 Week 2 Falcons at Cowboys DAL 40–39 56% +44
2020 Week 1 Eagles at Washington WAS 27–17 42% +58