luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Patriots, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 54–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 70% favorites.

Final

New York Jets 13
New England Patriots 54

October 24, 2021 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7

Luck index +7 Patriots about even · −7 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 23 NE 17
  2. 2 NYJ 24 NE 26
  3. 3 NYJ 44 NE 50
  4. 4 NYJ 14 NE 23
  5. 5 NYJ 26 NE 38
  6. 6 NYJ 24 NE 40
  7. 7 NYJ 23 NE 42
  8. 8 NYJ 13 NE 35
  9. 9 NYJ 3 NE 30
  10. 10 NYJ 10 NE 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 7% of them, Patriots 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 41.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.4%
Jets by 9–161.7%
Jets by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.8%
Patriots by 1–811.1%
Patriots by 9–1622.1%
Patriots by 17+59.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 41. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 38.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 48 yds missed · 77% expected
  • N. Folk, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Folk, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:29 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% NE NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 7:11 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
3 Q1 1:53 M. Ammendola missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +4% NE NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Kyle Dugger), 46 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1094 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +4% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:51 False Start on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 1683 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +3% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:45 The Jets converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:23 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q2 7:06 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dont'a Hightower (NE LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (NE DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Devin Asiasi (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chase Winovich (NE DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • C.J. Mosley (NYJ LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (NYJ TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Braden Mann (NYJ P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYJ FS), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 41
Luck in points
2.5 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 38.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 7% · Patriots 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Jets · Patriots

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