luckadjusted

Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Dolphins, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Dolphins 30–28, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 4.0 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): Y. Koo made 36-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 30
Miami Dolphins 28

October 24, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −1.5

Luck index +47 Falcons lucky · −47 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Dolphins win 5.

  1. 1 ATL 32 MIA 10
  2. 2 ATL 37 MIA 22
  3. 3 ATL 16 MIA 6
  4. 4 ATL 35 MIA 30
  5. 5 ATL 22 MIA 20
  6. 6 ATL 20 MIA 23
  7. 7 ATL 23 MIA 28
  8. 8 ATL 26 MIA 35
  9. 9 ATL 13 MIA 25
  10. 10 ATL 20 MIA 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 53% of them, Dolphins 47%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+12.3%
Falcons by 9–1615.3%
Falcons by 1–821.1%
Level after regulation5.7%
Dolphins by 1–820.7%
Dolphins by 9–1614.4%
Dolphins by 17+10.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 1.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Sanders, 49 yds blocked · 72% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:07 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:12 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:13 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% MIA ATL: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:14 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% ATL ATL: Turnover
5 Q4 6:03 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Falcons fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% MIA ATL: Field goal
6 Q4 5:37 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 3:30 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +15% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 Y. Koo made 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for himFalse Start on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +26% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Greg Mancz (MIA C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Deiter (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Jenkins (MIA NT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Matt Gono (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Isaiah Oliver (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kendall Sheffield (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (ATL DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Nizialek (ATL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 39% · Dolphins 61%

Final margin
Falcons by 2
Luck in points
3.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 53% · Dolphins 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · Falcons · Dolphins

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