Week 7 2021 · October 24, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bengals at Ravens, Week 7 2021: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Ravens 41–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Ravens.
An off day for the Ravens: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:02 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 2, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 41 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Bengals about even · −17 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 8, Ravens win 2.
- 1 CIN 73 BAL 40
- 2 CIN 42 BAL 17
- 3 CIN 54 BAL 32
- 4 CIN 27 BAL 10
- 5 CIN 31 BAL 17
- 6 CIN 32 BAL 23
- 7 CIN 35 BAL 30
- 8 CIN 35 BAL 33
- 9 CIN 30 BAL 34
- 10 CIN 26 BAL 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Ravens
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bengals they would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
43 points apart for the Ravens: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.40 | +0.13 | better by 0.27 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.12 | better by 0.14 |
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.18 | worse by 0.21 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.40 | +0.10 | worse by 0.30 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 83% of them, Ravens 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 45.8% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 20.4% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 16.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Bengals by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 14.3.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 67% expected
- J. Tucker, 45 yds made · 84% expected
- E. McPherson, 30 yds made · 96% expected
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:19 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +11% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:28 | The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +11% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 0:30 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +11% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 15:00 | The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 8:22 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% CIN | BAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 6:02 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +21% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:55 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +7% BAL | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:51 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +19% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
- Sammy Watkins (BAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 100% · Ravens 0%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 24
- Luck in points
- 9.7 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 14.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 83% · Ravens 17% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2021 games · 
Bengals · 
Ravens
More from Week 7 2021
- Broncos at Browns CLE 17–14 · replay 69% for the winner
- Falcons at Dolphins ATL 30–28 · replay 53% for the winner
- Panthers at Giants NYG 25–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Titans TEN 27–3 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 54–13 · replay 93% for the winner
- Washington at Packers GB 24–10 · replay 54% for the winner
- Lions at Rams LA 28–19 · replay 85% for the winner
- Eagles at Raiders LV 33–22 · replay 85% for the winner
- Bears at Buccaneers TB 38–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Texans at Cardinals ARI 31–5 · replay 99% for the winner
- Colts at 49ers IND 30–18 · replay 46% for the winner
- Saints at Seahawks NO 13–10 · replay 52% for the winner