luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2021 NFL season · October 21, 2021–October 25

Week 7 2021: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 7 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Colts won 30–18 and take 46% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 7 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 41–17 @ Ravens 32% 83% Deserved
Titans 27–3 vs Chiefs 38% 86% Deserved
Colts 30–18 @ 49ers 40% 46% Coin flip
Giants 25–3 vs Panthers 41% 97% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Colts W 30–18 @ 49ers 46% +54
2 Saints W 13–10 @ Seahawks 48% +52
3 Packers W 24–10 vs Washington 54% +46
4 Falcons W 30–28 @ Dolphins 55% +45
5 Browns W 17–14 vs Broncos 70% +30
6 Bengals W 41–17 @ Ravens 83% +17
7 Titans W 27–3 vs Chiefs 86% +14
8 Rams W 28–19 vs Lions 87% +13
9 Raiders W 33–22 vs Eagles 87% +13
10 Patriots W 54–13 vs Jets 94% +6
11 Giants W 25–3 vs Panthers 97% +3
12 Cardinals W 31–5 vs Texans 99% +1
13 Buccaneers W 38–3 vs Bears 99% +1
14 Bears L 3–38 @ Buccaneers 1% −1
15 Texans L 5–31 @ Cardinals 1% −1
16 Panthers L 3–25 @ Giants 3% −3
17 Jets L 13–54 @ Patriots 6% −6
18 Eagles L 22–33 @ Raiders 13% −13
19 Lions L 19–28 @ Rams 13% −13
20 Chiefs L 3–27 @ Titans 14% −14
21 Ravens L 17–41 vs Bengals 17% −17
22 Broncos L 14–17 @ Browns 30% −30
23 Dolphins L 28–30 vs Falcons 45% −45
24 Washington L 10–24 @ Packers 46% −46
25 Seahawks L 10–13 vs Saints 52% −52
26 49ers L 18–30 vs Colts 54% −54