luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2021 NFL season · October 14, 2021–October 18

Week 6 2021: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 6 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Raiders won 34–24 and take 43% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 6 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 34–31 vs Bills 33% 56% Coin flip
Raiders 34–24 @ Broncos 36% 43% Coin flip
Cardinals 37–14 @ Browns 41% 58% Coin flip
Jaguars 23–20 vs Dolphins 43% 65% Deserved

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Raiders W 34–24 @ Broncos 43% +57
2 Titans W 34–31 vs Bills 56% +44
3 Cardinals W 37–14 @ Browns 58% +42
4 Jaguars W 23–20 vs Dolphins 65% +35
5 Ravens W 34–6 vs Chargers 70% +30
6 Steelers W 23–20 vs Seahawks 70% +30
7 Cowboys W 35–29 @ Patriots 80% +20
8 Vikings W 34–28 @ Panthers 84% +16
9 Buccaneers W 28–22 @ Eagles 84% +16
10 Colts W 31–3 vs Texans 89% +11
11 Bengals W 34–11 @ Lions 90% +10
12 Packers W 24–14 @ Bears 91% +9
13 Chiefs W 31–13 @ Washington 96% +4
14 Rams W 38–11 @ Giants 97% +3
15 Giants L 11–38 vs Rams 3% −3
16 Washington L 13–31 vs Chiefs 4% −4
17 Bears L 14–24 vs Packers 9% −9
18 Lions L 11–34 vs Bengals 10% −10
19 Texans L 3–31 @ Colts 11% −11
20 Eagles L 22–28 vs Buccaneers 16% −16
21 Panthers L 28–34 vs Vikings 16% −16
22 Patriots L 29–35 vs Cowboys 20% −20
23 Seahawks L 20–23 @ Steelers 30% −30
24 Chargers L 6–34 @ Ravens 30% −30
25 Dolphins L 20–23 @ Jaguars 35% −35
26 Browns L 14–37 vs Cardinals 42% −42
27 Bills L 31–34 @ Titans 44% −44
28 Broncos L 24–34 vs Raiders 57% −57