luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Patriots, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Patriots 35–29, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:24 left): G. Zuerlein made a 49-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys. The biggest single swing (Q4, 2:36 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys.

Final (OT)

Dallas Cowboys 35
New England Patriots 29

October 17, 2021 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +20 Cowboys about even · −20 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Patriots win 2.

  1. 1 DAL 59 NE 26
  2. 2 DAL 33 NE 9
  3. 3 DAL 37 NE 17
  4. 4 DAL 47 NE 31
  5. 5 DAL 45 NE 33
  6. 6 DAL 49 NE 40
  7. 7 DAL 27 NE 23
  8. 8 DAL 37 NE 34
  9. 9 DAL 34 NE 38
  10. 10 DAL 34 NE 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 80% of them, Patriots 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+40.4%
Cowboys by 9–1620.9%
Cowboys by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Patriots by 1–810.6%
Patriots by 9–165.3%
Patriots by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Cowboys by 6, without the luck Cowboys by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 94% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 51 yds missed · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 49 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 12 for 115 yards, Patriots 5 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Cowboys (Jeremy Sprinkle), 11 yards +3% NE +0.8 pts
Q1 13:56 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NE +1.7 pts
Q1 5:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 15 yards +5% NE +1.7 pts
Q1 4:16 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +4% NE +1.4 pts
Q1 1:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NE +5.1 pts
Q2 12:48 Horse Collar Tackle on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yards +4% NE +1.0 pts
Q2 10:22 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% DAL +4.4 pts
Q2 8:19 Horse Collar Tackle on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 12 yards +4% DAL +1.2 pts
Q2 7:48 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.7 pts
Q3 11:20 False Start on the Patriots (Gunner Olszewski), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q3 9:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 4 yards, wiping out the play +8% NE +2.0 pts
Q3 4:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 15 yards +7% DAL +1.5 pts
Q3 0:04 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 13:13 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 3:44 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +13% NE +1.8 pts
Q4 2:36 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.4 pts
Q4 0:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys, 15 yards +16% NE +1.4 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:34 Blocked punt by the CowboysSpecial teams +17% DAL DAL: Turnover
2 Q4 3:44 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls +13% NE NE: Opp touchdown
3 Q4 2:47 G. Zuerlein missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 23 of 34 from 45+ before +24% NE DAL: Opp touchdown
4 Q4 2:36 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +57% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 1:28 The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +16% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 0:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys, 15 yardsJudgment calls +16% NE NE: End of game
7 Q4 0:24 The game turned hereG. Zuerlein made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 23 of 35 from 45+ before +16% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 OT 8:04 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +17% DAL NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terez Hall (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Devin Asiasi (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Anfernee Jennings (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 94% · Patriots 6%

Final margin
Cowboys by 6
Luck in points
5.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 11.3
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 80% · Patriots 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Cowboys · Patriots

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