luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Patriots, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Patriots 35–29, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9.8 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:36 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 57 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final (OT)

Dallas Cowboys 35
New England Patriots 29

October 17, 2021 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +18 Cowboys about even · −18 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 8, Patriots win 2.

  1. 1 DAL 56 NE 23
  2. 2 DAL 46 NE 19
  3. 3 DAL 44 NE 24
  4. 4 DAL 55 NE 38
  5. 5 DAL 30 NE 17
  6. 6 DAL 33 NE 24
  7. 7 DAL 30 NE 26
  8. 8 DAL 26 NE 24
  9. 9 DAL 27 NE 30
  10. 10 DAL 40 NE 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 82% of them, Patriots 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+42.6%
Cowboys by 9–1620.3%
Cowboys by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Patriots by 1–89.8%
Patriots by 9–164.7%
Patriots by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 18.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 51 yds missed · 66% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 49 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:34 Blocked punt by the CowboysSpecial teams +17% DAL DAL: Turnover
2 Q2 1:32 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% NE DAL: Punt
3 Q4 2:47 G. Zuerlein missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 23 of 34 from 45+ before +24% NE DAL: Opp touchdown
4 Q4 2:36 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +57% DAL DAL: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 1:28 The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +16% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 0:38 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys, 15 yardsJudgment calls +16% NE NE: End of game
7 Q4 0:24 G. Zuerlein made 49-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 23 of 35 from 45+ before +15% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 QOT 8:04 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +17% DAL NE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terez Hall (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Devin Asiasi (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Anfernee Jennings (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 96% · Patriots 4%

Final margin
Cowboys by 6
Luck in points
12.1 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 82% · Patriots 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Cowboys · Patriots

More from Week 6 2021