luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Panthers, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Panthers 34–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11.0 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): G. Joseph missed 47-yard field goal, worth 38 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final (OT)

Minnesota Vikings 34
Carolina Panthers 28

October 17, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +17 Vikings about even · −17 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 MIN 38 CAR 3
  2. 2 MIN 46 CAR 20
  3. 3 MIN 37 CAR 16
  4. 4 MIN 31 CAR 14
  5. 5 MIN 40 CAR 27
  6. 6 MIN 26 CAR 16
  7. 7 MIN 30 CAR 24
  8. 8 MIN 58 CAR 55
  9. 9 MIN 24 CAR 27
  10. 10 MIN 19 CAR 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 83% of them, Panthers 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+44.6%
Vikings by 9–1618.8%
Vikings by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation1.4%
Panthers by 1–89.3%
Panthers by 9–164.7%
Panthers by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 18.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Joseph, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:20 The Vikings fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CAR MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 1:02 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsDelay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% MIN MIN: End of half
3 Q3 6:56 Blocked punt by the PanthersSpecial teams +20% CAR CAR: Opp touchdown
4 Q3 2:30 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:51 The Panthers converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:42 The Panthers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% CAR CAR: End of game
7 Q4 0:06 G. Joseph missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before +38% CAR MIN: Touchdown
8 QOT 8:29 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +16% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joseph Charlton (CAR P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
12.6 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 18.6
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 83% · Panthers 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Vikings · Panthers

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