luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Lions, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Lions 34–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:31 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 34
Detroit Lions 11

October 17, 2021 · Ford Field · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +11 Bengals about even · −11 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Lions win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 45 DET 13
  2. 2 CIN 32 DET 9
  3. 3 CIN 37 DET 19
  4. 4 CIN 19 DET 3
  5. 5 CIN 29 DET 15
  6. 6 CIN 24 DET 13
  7. 7 CIN 23 DET 14
  8. 8 CIN 21 DET 17
  9. 9 CIN 18 DET 16
  10. 10 CIN 13 DET 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 89% of them, Lions 11%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+44.9%
Bengals by 9–1623.1%
Bengals by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.6%
Lions by 1–87.5%
Lions by 9–162.5%
Lions by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bengals by 15.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • E. McPherson, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • A. Seibert, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:26 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:31 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:04 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DET DET: Turnover
4 Q1 0:40 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% DET DET: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 10:53 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% CIN DET: Turnover on downs
6 Q2 5:14 The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% DET DET: Punt
7 Q2 0:23 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% CIN CIN: Field goal
8 Q3 10:49 The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Decker (DET T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Frank Ragnow (DET C), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kevin Strong (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Quintez Cephus (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 100% · Lions 0%

Final margin
Bengals by 23
Luck in points
8.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 15.0
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 89% · Lions 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Bengals · Lions

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