luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Eagles, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 28–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.8 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 70% favorites.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Philadelphia Eagles 22

October 14, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Buccaneers −7

Luck index +15 Buccaneers about even · −15 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Eagles win 2.

  1. 1 TB 50 PHI 19
  2. 2 TB 41 PHI 17
  3. 3 TB 31 PHI 12
  4. 4 TB 24 PHI 10
  5. 5 TB 31 PHI 20
  6. 6 TB 34 PHI 26
  7. 7 TB 40 PHI 35
  8. 8 TB 23 PHI 20
  9. 9 TB 27 PHI 30
  10. 10 TB 17 PHI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 85% of them, Eagles 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+37.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.5%
Buccaneers by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation1.3%
Eagles by 1–89.9%
Eagles by 9–164.1%
Eagles by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 6.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:51 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:32 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 45 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1887 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:38 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +4% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:17 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% PHI TB: Punt
7 Q4 12:43 J. Elliott missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 8 of 16 from 45+ before +4% TB PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:24 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Graham (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • K'Von Wallace (PHI SS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Rob Gronkowski (TB TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Zach Triner (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 86% · Eagles 14%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 6
Luck in points
0.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 85% · Eagles 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Buccaneers · Eagles

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