luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Giants, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Giants 38–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.9 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Rams were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:31 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 15 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 38
New York Giants 11

October 17, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Rams −7.5

Luck index +3 Rams about even · −3 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 LA 48 NYG 9
  2. 2 LA 41 NYG 9
  3. 3 LA 34 NYG 7
  4. 4 LA 30 NYG 7
  5. 5 LA 37 NYG 17
  6. 6 LA 44 NYG 28
  7. 7 LA 27 NYG 14
  8. 8 LA 41 NYG 31
  9. 9 LA 33 NYG 26
  10. 10 LA 33 NYG 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 97% of them, Giants 3%. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+76.0%
Rams by 9–1614.3%
Rams by 1–86.7%
Level after regulation0.4%
Giants by 1–81.9%
Giants by 9–160.5%
Giants by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 27. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 27.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 32 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 The Giants converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q1 7:03 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% NYG LA: Punt
3 Q1 4:49 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 2:23 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +11% LA NYG: Punt
5 Q1 1:28 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% NYG LA: Punt
6 Q2 14:24 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% LA NYG: Punt
7 Q2 9:31 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Giants fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% LA NYG: Punt
8 Q2 8:11 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Blake Martinez (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darious Williams (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cam Akers (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Justin Hollins (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Rams by 27
Luck in points
0.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 27.4
Replay with same day's form
Rams 97% · Giants 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Rams · Giants

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