luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Broncos, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 34–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:03 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 2, worth 16 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 34
Denver Broncos 24

October 17, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −5

Luck index +55 Raiders lucky · −55 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 LV 44 DEN 20
  2. 2 LV 38 DEN 23
  3. 3 LV 51 DEN 40
  4. 4 LV 26 DEN 20
  5. 5 LV 29 DEN 27
  6. 6 LV 23 DEN 26
  7. 7 LV 34 DEN 40
  8. 8 LV 19 DEN 29
  9. 9 LV 10 DEN 26
  10. 10 LV 17 DEN 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 45% of them, Broncos 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+11.8%
Raiders by 9–1613.5%
Raiders by 1–819.5%
Level after regulation5.4%
Broncos by 1–821.5%
Broncos by 9–1614.6%
Broncos by 17+13.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 50 yds made · 70% expected
  • D. Carlson, 43 yds missed · 82% expected
  • B. McManus, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:03 The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +16% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:06 The Broncos converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:50 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% DEN LV: Field goal
4 Q1 0:30 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% LV DEN: Punt
5 Q2 13:49 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% DEN LV: Missed field goal
6 Q2 13:16 D. Carlson missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +7% DEN LV: Punt
7 Q2 4:31 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q2 1:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1238 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +12% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jerry Jeudy (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN ILB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DaeSean Hamilton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trayvon Mullen (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Johnathan Hankins (LV DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Johnathan Hankins (LV NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Denzelle Good (LV G/T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 89% · Broncos 11%

Final margin
Raiders by 10
Luck in points
3.7 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 45% · Broncos 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Raiders · Broncos

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