2021 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2021: game by game
The Packers went 13–4 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.1 wins. Luck added 1.9: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Saints | L 3–38 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 2 | vs Lions | W 35–17 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 3 | @ 49ers | W 30–28 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 4 | vs Steelers | W 27–17 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 5 | @ Bengals | W 25–22 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 6 | @ Bears | W 24–14 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 7 | vs Washington | W 24–10 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 8 | @ Cardinals | W 24–21 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 9 | @ Chiefs | L 7–13 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 10 | vs Seahawks | W 17–0 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 11 | @ Vikings | L 31–34 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 12 | vs Rams | W 36–28 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 14 | vs Bears | W 45–30 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 15 | @ Ravens | W 31–30 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 16 | vs Browns | W 24–22 | 46% | +54 |
| Week 17 | vs Vikings | W 37–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 18 | @ Lions | L 30–37 | 50% | −50 |
| Divisional round | vs 49ers | L 10–13 | 22% | −22 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.45 | +0.3 |
| Rest | −0.05 | −1.0 |
| Judgment calls | −0.05 | −7.0 |
| Injuries | −0.11 | +0.2 |