2021 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2021: game by game
The Packers went 13–4 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.0 wins. Luck added 2.0: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–3.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Saints | L 3–38 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 2 | vs Lions | W 35–17 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 3 | @ 49ers | W 30–28 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 4 | vs Steelers | W 27–17 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 5 | @ Bengals | W 25–22 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 6 | @ Bears | W 24–14 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 7 | vs Washington | W 24–10 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 8 | @ Cardinals | W 24–21 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 9 | @ Chiefs | L 7–13 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 10 | vs Seahawks | W 17–0 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 11 | @ Vikings | L 31–34 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 12 | vs Rams | W 36–28 | 24% | +76 |
| Week 14 | vs Bears | W 45–30 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 15 | @ Ravens | W 31–30 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 16 | vs Browns | W 24–22 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 17 | vs Vikings | W 37–10 | 98% | +3 |
| Week 18 | @ Lions | L 30–37 | 47% | −47 |
| Divisional round | vs 49ers | L 10–13 | 24% | −24 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Packers’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +2.5 | +0.15 |
| Injuries | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Rest | −1.0 | −0.06 |
| Judgment calls | −20.3 | −1.20 |
| Kicks | −22.8 | −1.34 |